Sam Lessin vs Seth Rosenberg: Is AI a great startup opportunity or will incumbents capture all the value?

Toe let's bring him in into the Temple of Technology The Fortress of Finance hey good to see you welcome stream how you doing oh you got the custom background with the billboard there yeah I'm I'm starting with a little psychological warfare okay that's that's my strategy just get him get him a little uncomfortable yeah what does it say it says lesson South uh shoot lesson a message not Seth Greenberg yeah very AI generated it says it says got a weird meme coin shoot less than a message not so it's cut off it's cut off over here but uh yeah give us a breakdown how did we wind up here so um about a year ago or maybe six months ago Les and I had a public debate about um you know is the AI opportunity for startups or incumbents yep and it got heated um and so yeah we've kind of just been going back and forth and then and then he actually took out a physical billboard on the 101 like with all like amongst all these like advertisements for AI companies that says AI is not your Moote like love slow kind of thing Y and then I just kind of tweeted back at him saying I'm gonna like take out a billboard on the other side okay um and then it yeah yeah so then he he lesson threw up new ad yesterday that says got an AI startup idea shoot Seth Rosenberg a message not slow so this is basically the Drake and Kendrick of of allocators uh and the Tupac Biggie of this era really exactly um no but it's great it's great to have you on uh Sam's Sam's a fierce debater we were talking with Logan Bartlett earlier moderated debate so we're going to try to keep it going to try to keep it very uh very keep it tight keep it tight cuz he's known to filibuster a little bit when you get him going right so you got you guys got to help me just cut Sam off okay yeah yeah yeah well I mean he might not even show up and then you win by default yeah exactly it's a forfeit yeah what uh yeah why don't why don't like since we have some time why give some background on your introduce yourself some background uh for the for the listeners sure well so Sam Actually hired me at Facebook in 2013 way so we've gone way back crazy wow yeah exactly so I was like this young Analyst at Goldman Sachs like spending 100 hours a week in spreadsheets and then Sam invited me to this back room dinner in New York talking about the future of the world and this is back when Facebook had a little less baggage it was still like a startup energy like future of the world giving individuals a voice like Arab Spring all that and I was just super inspired by it um and so it was like a 4H hour dinner conversation I'm like Sam like I defin like that was the first time I met him but you know he's quirky and Future itic and so I'm like I need to do this so I spent like any spare time I had like learning how to code and just like getting up to speed on Tech world and then have just been in in that world ever since how long were you at Facebook yeah I was there for about four years I I led the separation of messenger into its own app and then David Marcus came on to lead it and Stan came on and built kind of an Empire around it and then I was running post project Titan because it wasn't Titan like the the whole project to like put everything together and then you kind of that was after I left that was after I left this was this was the opposite of that was the separation yeah this was back when it was like Facebook Chat that's the game at a hyperscaler you just break it apart put it back together full employment for PMS in the valley yeah exactly so I was there for phase one okay and then you went straight to Greylock or what was your next move no no so I was running the uh product for the developer platform at Facebook which was like AI Bots messenger Bots it's like the hottest thing in San Valley for like four months before everyone realized it didn't work because we were seven years away from lm's actually you know being released yeah I those Bots lots of business logic lots of if then statements exactly dressed up with a nice UI every once in a while but all right we got your former uh your former boss or at least the guy that hired you is in the waiting room now so we can bring him in bring him in and uh bring them into the Temple of Technology The Fortress of Finance the capital Capital uh and if they if they get out of hand I'm going to be ringing this gong telling you hurry it up finish what you're saying no filibustering on this debate you know Sam you almost forfeited by being late I was in the waiting room I'm sitting there I I wore my team Canada uh you Canadian team Canada like Archer for you Seth yeah thank you I appreciate that I I support your 51st state yeah hey I'm American now I kind of supported too honestly there you go that's great well welcome to the stream welcome to the debate uh should we do some some opening arguments what what lay down the the the general uh the what is the actual point that we're debating here uh sustaining versus disruptive innovation for artificial intelligence is that kind of where you guys are differing the most I think the debate is that Sam has too much disposable income to waste on billboards oh okay yeah so Sam what's the ROI been so far are you I don't know Seth how many how many AI pitches have you gotten from my billboard actually honestly like the the the inbox is full yeah goant welcome you're welcome I see no debate here I'm very happy to send Seth all the AI pitches and life is good and to be clear this this debate is presented by adquick the number one way to buy Billboards on the 101 yes if you're trying to Duke it out with a rival get on adquick get a billboard it's underrated to take you know debates from the timeline to the 101 you just you know air it all air it all out um but yeah so so Sam uh you know we had we had lesson on the show I think last Friday uh Broadley you know talking about opportunities and Ai and the whole kind of full spectrum uh maybe yeah I mean I I don't even know necessarily where to start you guys were the ones that well okay here's what I'll I'll Seth Seth and I have been debating this for years let me let me try to Tee It Up which is I for several years so I try to be self-consistent have been very Pro that AI is going to make the big big big platforms a ton of money um and it's going to be really good for small businesses but it is a terrible place to hunt for startups right it's a great way to lose a lot of money on startups now I my refinement of that which which I will give as a refinement from my like original is I do really believe in what I'll call AI cherry on top businesses which is businesses that are good that there's a sweetener because of the efficiency in AI but broadly speaking when people come in and Pitch AI my answer is pass please go call Seth Seth's answer I think is please call me okay Seth what you got say so I think that teas it up well so I I'll give you two examples of where I think massive new businesses can be built that are let's say AI native um I think one is uh like networks and marketplaces based on new uh democratization of being able to create new types of content so like the analogy on the phone is you now have a camera every in everyone's pocket the first wave of apps was like camera filter apps and then Instagram no the first wave of app fart apps fart apps and like drinking a beer app beer drinking fair fair but like the first camera apps were like you know just like little fun tools you could do with the camera but then the real mobile first business were things like Instagram and snap right which basically created networks around democrati ation of creation of new content and I think if you think about AI like what new types of content can now be created by everyone there's a few examples one are games like what's the next Roblox two is music you know is sunno going to have like a consumption experience so there going to be a new type of network there three is software right just generally I don't know if if there's enough out there to build like a you know web app store around productivity or vertical sass or whatever but there's basically basically democratization of new content type and I think you can create a marketplace around that think you could build a big business so I mean go ahead I guess to like maybe push you a bit further there like specifically around sunno and I don't have no insight into what they're actually doing but if I create a great song onso don't I want to share that with like the most amount of of people so I just like take that to YouTube or or X and wouldn't that be an argument that you know like the the value just kind of continues to just like anchor around the sort of distribution platform yeah I think that would be um you know a base case or kind of like smaller outcome forso if it just kind of gets relegated into the creative tool but I think if like the number and quality of things that are actually created on Theo platform starts to exceed or at least like take a meaningful but separate piece of of the market then they they could just create a more closed ecosystem system where the only way way to get that content is onso that's extremely unlikely I mean the thing that I think is like that I would say I buy is I'd say that there the in general the medium is the message right and so you have in a lot of places and so when you have a new tech by the way Sam Sam made me read that book as onboarding for Facebook I did I used to control I used to have the distinction of controlling the reading list which I invented for all onboarded PMs and I hired Seth and then made him read was it it was it snow crash snow crash okay um snow crash was well before Oculus on the required reading list Fant a few others um but look I mean I think here's what I was going to say is um I do if you think about like a lot of what the internet is people like to think about it as a technology right or a lot what it really is is like an information economy or content economy and like I think if you start thinking about things on economic terms of like producers consumers like what's the what's the holistic picture of that you do get some really interesting Frameworks for talking about AI so I'll give an example what is Facebook or what is social media it really is a Content pump Right There Are Rules there's an economy established with it that economy then produces a certain type of content pumping out of humans that otherwise wouldn't have been pumped out and then recirculates and share and creates an economy around it if you said hey AI creates some new affordances that makes it cheaper to pump information like all of a sudden we can Frack humans right in a new way and by fracking them there's some sort of like new content type that comes out that is super compelling and super different sure like maybe that there's something there but I think the the the most likely outcome by a mile when you think about products is it just turns out that like most products and the platforms already exist it's all about getting laid or getting paid these AI is one of the greatest extensions of existing platforms you could imagine just makes everything better and just like fracking you kind of get new content or cheaper content from people because AI makes it easier but it all flows to the same pipelines right and the money is not in the fracking because the fracking itself is commodity yeah I definitely agree that the fracking is commodity meaning the creation the question is can you Frack something new that then creates a new network right and I just think it's extremely unlikely because the pipelines exist right like there's no like what is the new like you don't it's just oil you're does that make it a good VC bet if even if it's even if there's like a you know 5% chance but the new network is you know I mean that's what happened Tik Tok right like it was first just a lip-syncing app and you would repost that content elsewhere and then they bootstrapped a network on top of it and became a very good outcome for I guess the CCP but uh you know imagine new content type that was a new content like Snap doesn't Harry Potter Balenciaga videos couldn't that be the the the lipsyncing video of this era I feel like I'm a Democrat with CNN on my side here got the host on my side but we're just guiding the conversation you know I think you're both uh I think you're both wrong no I'm kidding the problem the problem with AI in general and I think the entire AI discussion is um I always like to point out it's like the the average of infinity and zero is infinity right and so VCS aren't very good at math but they can do that one and so the problem is you say okay this is so disruptive that even though the likely outcome is zero because there's like no math you can do on this and Market big then you're like well I'll pay anything because maybe it's a thing right and like I think that's actually what's going on in the industry a lot I think it's quite bad because it leads to this like complete lack of like thoughtfulness and discipline it's just like the most rudimentary math on what happens I look a lot um there are actually projects I'll give you an example of something I actually believe is like new content that can EX exist because of AI that not only I've invested and I helped start right which is we work on this thing called Merit first uh with Joe Lonsdale and his team we have some good announcements that'll happen Sam here's the thing about it here's the basic here's the basic setup for it and it is it is an interesting AI oriented business because you say look the way you hire people to date in most worlds is credential based you're like ah you went to Harvard you studied this thing you got this check box now you're in my pipeline hell I hired Seth because we used to go to New York and say we want to talk smartest people from Bane McKenzie Goldman BCG uh and and Morgan that was it that was like the entire thing like we don't know how to look at everyone we're just going to like go call those people and we'll like pick some of them right that was how we did hiring um at least in the alternative PM hiring we were doing um what is way better is to do it based on what you can actually do based on tests based on you know forget credentials I don't care how you got go to something like what like show me what you can do here's the problem is if you go to a most hiring man say hey hire based on tests you have three problems one is they like well I don't know how to design a good test right like what is a good test for this role it's actually pretty hard to figure that out and make it me meaningful two how do I know you're not cheating and three the biggest most non- obvious once you have like 10,000 applications for something you're screwed because you can't possibly actually grade all those tests right unless it's like a multiple choice which is like not sophisticated so does AI have leverage on that absolutely does that mean that there's like a new way to think about a human interaction like how do you hire people because AI exists absolutely like that is the type of thing but it's not you're not investing in the AI you're investing in like a new way or a new approach to hiring which happens to leverage AI right and I think there is an important distinction there uh well yeah I'm I'm glad I already got hired so so I don't have to compete with yeah you don't have to do yeah I don't have to compete with 20 other people but um the that that's actually kind of the second big bucket Sam of AI opportunities that to me are very obvious which is just AI opening up new markets that were historically uh owned by labor right and right now you're talking about recruiting massive industry it's mostly human Le um there's a long list of others right where technology is now taking labor span whether it's legal whether it's accounting compliance we have a company in our portfolio called Green light that's growing super fast and it's just you know these large banks in fintex have like thousands of compliance analysts that just go through checkboxes and write reports and so you're competing with bpos in these cases well kind of but I think this is something you to be really careful about because this goes back to the whole like what are you actually investing in and is this an AI company like the one of the big memes right now in venture capital is oh we should like buy accounting firms and make them robots yeah and by the way I'm not doing I'm not doing the rollup and it's like I mean we've actually done a bunch of rollups that we do make sense but like this is one in particular I think is really stupid because it people don't understand the point of accountants right the point of an accountant is not like you could have a robot you could have a you know some fancy AI that has a 1% error rate or even a 0.

1% error rate on your taxes your accountant might be running a 3% error rate who do you hire you hire the human you know why cuz you know you're really hiring with an accountant you're hiring someone so that when the IRS is like you up your taxes you're I don't know talk to Steve right and like but you could still do that you can still sell software to Big account like 1.

6 million accountants right now send them the chat gb.

com link so the basic point is like there's a lot of jobs that people want to like o machine can automate and you're like you don't understand like this is a liability shifting thing like most a lot of human jobs are not actually about doing the thing they're about shifting liability and responsibility right that's actually I agree that the job will change to its Essence which which is like trust and sales right but that just means that that individual guy Steve who everyone trusts to put a rubber stamp can do 10 times the amount of business with the basic but but every the problem is the AI itself is commodity and everyone will have it and like that's not where the Leverage is so you're not really investing in the AI business right you're still investing in the accounting business Steve's business right and everyone has the same level that it's it's a classic war of attrition where like you you the and I just don't think this is a place where like unlike a where you're going to like make money on the arms dealing because the arms dealing is all commodity the question is does Steve like is the software that Steve's using to leverage himself is that open Ai and chat BT it doesn't is that wrers or is that it doesn't matter it's all commodity okay how do you map this to the mobile wave because we were just talking to Logan Bartlett about this it's kind of the classic uh innovators dilemma sustaining Innovation versus disruptive innovation and with mobile it's like it was it did feel like a sustaining innovation in that the mobile Salesforce was just Salesforce and yet a lot of VCS made a lot of money betting on mobile companies if they got into WhatsApp you don't think so they didn't they didn't make that much money on it I mean I think Silicon Valley has a story that Venture capitalists like to tell LPS which is every X years the whole thing gets reshuffled and there's all this money to be made it's right like the going from shrink rck software to Internet that was a big deal right that was a paradigm shifting broke the machine thing you know I would actually argue that the shift to mobile was not disruptive at all right like you have all the same winners they're just bigger right um I would argue that the shift to Cloud was barely disruptive right um and it just turns out that like there's there's a very big difference between things things that are so important in Paradigm shifting they break the incumbents and there's huge opportunities for wi like that's why crypto is really interesting think what you will of it it's EXT crypto is extremely hostile to incumbents right as like a concept we can talk about how it's being Now co-opted by incumbents but like in general like it fundamentally is whereas I could not think of a more classically extending Innovation than AI right it just makes the rich richer when's the Sam lesson mag 7 ETF coming then if you're so bullish on the no you got to buy jelly jelly well first of all say the mag like I would actually argue I I was I because I like to lick the cookie on these things yeah uh is like I I was like I think you know if you go back two years like pitching the like these are the five that are going to win an AI and it's all the same ones that already exist I mean it you know so I'm into the mag s thing I also would say like when people ask me like my AI investing strategy I'm going say like thank God I held on to some Facebook stock right like that's the answer it's like yeah what about the idea that like Apple's slipping or Google's not shipping fast enough like this does create opportunities for entrepreneurs at least to build a company that gets acquired or something like they're not going to get acquired they're just going to get copied here's what I'd say like I I don't think the AI I think here's maybe some common ground with Sam I don't think AI is going to kill incumbents in favor of startups but I do think it it opens up new markets and yes they're outliers but that's kind of what we're in the business of doing and funding and um like for mobile yes like it didn't kill Facebook it didn't kill Airbnb but it created Uber it created door Dash it created instacart it created Tik Tok right it created snap it created Instagram uh created a WhatsApp and so these are tens of billions hundreds of billions of of of value that that were kind of mobile first and it's a similar thing which is like what are the new capabilities GPS camera video can you create can you use that as a hook to then create a sustainable business whether it's a network you know I agree with you Sam that like AI buy like doing an API called open AI is obviously not defensible but can you use it as a hook to then build a real business and I just think the answer is in almost all places no right like I think it's a thing it's just like oh everyone uses it everything gets leveled up you know like T think about um incumbents and apple look apple is Comic we talked about this last week like the Apple stuff is like pretty funny right because it's so bad right um but it's not going to make me buy an Android phone right like and so you're like so they have a hell of a lot of time to figure out something like it's we are a long way away from that being a real issue for them even if it's pretty funny um what about the more sclerotic Industries I mean you're thinking about uh you know like management Consultants seem to be printing money on AI just strapping on AI pitches onto a legacy businesses as I see like oh I go to IBM or something with uh oh I want to re-platform my app and I just need a bunch of programmers to do that it feels like an AI native company there could potentially scale up and get really big I don't know I mean like look Accenture is g to make a lot of money shortterm on Trans on the stuff right short term the problem is exenter is mostly in the business of Bo Outsourcing and they're going to eat themselves in doing that right and so it's very it's going to be a very different world for them in terms of how they navigate this good good any but like anyone who sells business Consulting is going to do pretty well in a period where like it transformation for a little bit it's just like these are not VC backed businesses like these are consulting firms that will make money for a little bit right um I mean it seems like you're just super bearish on VC as an asset class like should Founders just go and build uh just just go and build a you lifestyle business or something or or pick some different capital structure so go for it Seth yeah no I mean AI is also great I think AI is just an accelerant for everything it makes large companies more profitable it opens up new markets for startups whether it's Services businesses or new networks and it's uh it's also great for lifestyle businesses you can there's a long tale of random problems that you can now solve really specifically with a very small team so I the way I would phrase it is related a little differently which is in life the middle usually drops out right and I think AI is a great example of dropping out the middle like no one want being a there's no such thing as being a 10 billion public company anymore it's just like a dumb place to be no one cares right you either want to be hyperscaler right which is a great I mean it's a great place like most of the market says AI interesting where put money for AI right and like that's like been the the seek and that's why you've seen like the mag s and particular things like Facebook just Crush it cuz you're like no liability tons of upside like easy bet like why ises everyone buy Nvidia they're like we don't know how to invest in this Nvidia seems fine or like we don't know how to invest in this let's just buy Power right like because we're not sure how this plays out so like the big will keep getting bigger and they'll be like a massive and then on the very small end you're like think about lifestyle look I the reason we have a Creator fund right the reason that we do a bunch of stuff at the low end is I I totally buy the thesis that you're going to see individuals that have a lot of trust and brand and community and deeply understand a niche um do things you haven't seen before like I I buy the one person billion doll company thing like I think that's real with like with the leverage you have I think the key is you just have to have the right capital for the mission you're on um and having the wrong capital is a really bad place and by the way the worst Capital you can have I personally think is being a subscale company competing with hypers hyperscalers using Venture Capital right that's it's like a recipe for total disaster because the hyperscalers have orders of magnitude more money and time right and you're just like you're kind of truly bringing a knife to a gunfight isn't it possible that we wind up looking back on this in a few years and think like oh we just hadn't thought of what the Uber for AI is how do you think about the Uber story with mobile to you know today like uber was hard to predict when the iPhone dropped I mean already for AI like what's the Uber for AI cursor like the next Roblox no those like they're fine they're fine I I think like it's interesting why do you think cursor is interesting like it's cursor's I like it I use it as a product I don't see it as a good business I just think like it's the classic like startups need to get distribution before incumbents innovate and now because these tools are so powerful you're actually able to get distribution as a new company very quickly so if you're first market with the best product then you can start leaning into all the other things that kind of give you defensibility I don't know I that's true the the thing is people are applying Network thinking to what's fundamentally just a technology right it's not a there's no network there's no lock in not a network there's a lot of prods that become very sticky because they think so I think the whole point of AI is the switching cost for almost all this stuff goes to zero right and because switching cost is zero there's just no I mean people like I have I use um chorus if you guys play with chorus no it's awesome haven't used it it's great it's basically just like a desktop app and you plug all the llms into it right like you have keys for all of them and like I don't care like use the best one marginally when a new one comes out you know the only defensible thing it is is there's so many llm models at this point I'm happy to give someone the job of actually researching them all and deciding which one to send a specific query too like there's some sort of aggregation value there a little bit for now but I don't know one fun thought exercise on the social side is that you know we went through this generation you know social media was great initially because people were like oh it's actually more interesting to see what my friends are kind of talking about and doing versus just like traditional media which is like random people and then it was like the Kim Kardashian era of you know it's more interesting to like follow a famous person's life and uh it's it's possible to imagine a world where just being in a version of Instagram where everyone's a b and they all like you know are either polarizing or exactly aligned with your views and there's just like this kind of constant stream and you get everybody gets a thousand likes on their post and they post get like my line on this has been that the for for 20 years the way you start a social network is you say who do you want to follow and the way to start a social network today is say who do you want to follow you right um is like the the inversion that you could see like I'd actually argue Twitter is already doing this like Twitter I think is intention my I'm not I inside information my sense is it is intentionally full of bots right because people are lonely people want responses it's clearly full they want the we talked about this Sam as like a new Social Network yes so you're like look it doesn't you clearly there just aren't mathematically enough humans to fulfill people's need for like validation so like sure throw a bunch of machines in the mix so that people have more validation floating this is why I debate Sam I just want more Billboards I think I think one one example that is way too easy to like or or way too early to make a call is you have um so Seth you guys are in uh toome which started out is like the ability to like generate uh slides which like people spend a ton of time all day long making slide decks like there's probably billions of dollars spent just producing slide decks in the US for various use cases uh they recently sort of pivoted into a space around um you know automating sales research and outbound you can imagine like you know like a real test will be can toome compete with uh Salesforce when Salesforce has this sort of dis you know Army of people like jamming uh comparable products you know uh and actually for you know there was some news in the information I think yesterday that Salesforce is basically saying if you don't pay for agent force we're like raising your your your regular you know rates on the CRM side like 3x I can already give you the answer let's say his company but I love Keith I really respect a great guy um used to work with me too same team is um no way can compete on this but I'll go even a step further which is this entire industry of outbound goes away this is where we talk about the real displacement of what's going on so first I mean I have several portfolio companies they're calling us saying you know we have this thing we tried this thing in in AI but now all the platforms are just bundling it and giving it away and we and we can't compete cuz even if we're better so like that's happening all the places and you're like duh of course that's going to happen this is an easy tack on but the the step two which is where the really interesting social displacement comes is everyone's excited about oh I can use AI to like customize outbound sales or something you're like your inbox is now worthless because once all the sales are customized you can't tell what's real and what's fake that entire economy collapses right so I'd actually go the more likely outcome is a no toome can't beat Salesforce but two even if they could that entire emotion goes away because of AI yeah look I don't think you need to be beat Salesforce to be very successful and to find a segment of the market that wants a more modern product that you know understands your business has everything in one place and can actually make your sales seem a lot more effective with a more modern architecture so I think to is going to be successful uh because again you can think about this hypothetically or you can talk to customers especially in different segments and just see where the pain is but I one thing I'll agree with Sam on is I think we're in an outlier business you you have to be very selective I think people who are overpaying for things that are not durable at like crazy prices that's not a game that we're playing and and not a game that I believe in either I think you know backing like amazing product Builders and technologists going after um either existing markets that need to be totally rearchitecturing you know a very long taale of really large markets uh I I still think there's like a massive amount of value to be made I just think that it's such a different like I'll give you an example like I think it's of you don't want to back generic Facebook PMS anymore who know Ai and product right because they don't know anything right and like it's just commod if anything the iron is it's all getting all those things are getting hyper commoditized in terms of and AI only commoditized it faster ter how do you build and what is a product it stuff doesn't like if you told me and we look some of this too you have a truly unique Market Insight you understand a market that no one else gets because you've been a specialist for 20 years in it or whatever by the way the tools of building and and the paradigms have changed so quickly there's an opportunity to build something new yeah there's interesting stuff there we do businesses that are AI quote unquote enabled all the time that fit that pattern but those people are generally not building quote unquote AI tools they're just like it's kind of like saying like they're not building Cloud companies or internet companies they're just building great companies that happened to leverage technology okay I agree like there was like an AI conference last week and I'm like this concept of an AI conference is going to last like six months because eventually you know it's just it's like building internet business computer everything everything comp conferences everything's computer for sure everything's computer we're at 30 minutes we got to ring the gong we got to wrap it up won the debate guys closing arguments we'll let the we'll let the fans decide let the inter we'll let the B decide and whichever it's an economic battle it's a capital War Capital fight whoever deploys more Bots to vote wins so no no here's the real way we're going to do it I will put a a calendar invite for like five years from now okay love and we'll just come back we'll watch the debate and we'll just pause and and people can take little Victory laps they can talk about love that so uh five years from today mark your calendar calendars uh I look forward to it thank you guys for jumping on have fun have fun on the 101 enjoy a great we see Sam yeah we should uh host the followup to that debate at a wander go to wanderer.

com book a wander today they're also doing a giveaway sign up and uh wanderer.

com tvpn uh you can also use tvpn to get $300 off your first stay uh one thing about wanders the properties are so amazing they do get booked out out pretty far in advance at times but not five years in advance so we definitely get something we can get something in the bastle home sweet castle that's what I'm looking for umpiring Hotel great amenities dreamy beds top tier cleaning and 247 coner service it's a vacation home but better folks check it out let's go back to the timeline wrap up let's do it uh we got and that was and and just just to summarize that was fun um who do you think won I mean I I do tend to side with Sam I think Seth has good points I think Seth Seth's an optimist he's in the outlier business you know the entire model of running a fund like Greylock is if we can back you know one one or two you know really impactful companies per fund they have more AUM they can you know make bigger Investments um and uh I think they're they're in the the sort of optimism business Sam is much more of a pessimist sure but he has some um he has some real points right you know the toome company specifically I brought it up they they started they were very hyped sort of AI slides company didn't find a market for what they were doing now they are competing with Salesforce and I I can imagine um I mean anybody in sales is competing with Salesforce they're an AI assistant for sales so um yeah and and it's I mean it is good to kind of like break down like what it means to be bullish on AI generally because you could just say yeah the AI thing is real and the way I'm expressing that is in a MAG 7 ETF and going long hyperscalers or it could be I'm building a lifestyle business as a solo developer Vibe coding pumping it out on X with videos and making money that way and so there's always a bull market somewhere but I think Sam is narrowing it down to hey maybe $20 million series A's are are particularly fraught right now yeah and I don't know it's possible um it just just depends on if you get in the right business I still think it's early enough that we could get our WhatsApp we could get our Uber and you might see some funds dump $20 million at2 200 million doll post and still get 100x return the big thing is is it seems like what we now Define as AGI is an extending Innovation but it's the sort of looming ASI oh that's the disruptor the the real disruptor is ASI not AGI as we' sort of currently defining that so my joke with that is that eventually when ASI comes you say set up a website or buy me something and it rebuilds Stripe from first prin like all the way writes all the code that's ever existed on the internet in in five seconds and builds you everything yeah and and that would be very disruptive but I think we're a long way away from there uh especially on how much it cost to inference these models and how how rough the the vibe coding thing has been amazing but then we've heard a lot of accounts of people saying yeah it'll get you 80% of the way there 90% of the way there but there's still a lot of humans in the loop and maybe we are seeing not acceleration but deceleration in in the the efficacy of these models um but they're still really fun they're cool and I want to check out some of those ones that he uh recommended I actually did play with sunno last night for the first time bedtime song no uh I was trying to make a theme song for tvpn I was thinking we need our own uh you know NFL no so what we should do is get uh a symphony yes and we stand the Sy and they play it and we and we just you know my takeaway was that yeah I would love to get a human to do this because the first version that came back I was like uh you know ESPN style football song intro and I didn't have lyrics turned off and so it generated all these funny lyrics like football game starting now and like all these really ridiculous things um but uh lots of promise there and uh I mean just the mid journey of Music seems fun I don't know if it'll replace everything but cly like AOL in theol chest for the artist overall I think having a debate letting people share their opinion and then circling back to it Y is really the best solution because you can't win a debate like that in the moment it's just Vibes right now yes definitely and I think uh keeping it tight and short is key yeah anyway let's