Mike Solana on DC culture shock, the Ezra Klein 'abundance' rebrand, and why AI predictions are mostly noise

are actively looping the short. Um, but hopefully No, no, no. Mike Salon is coming into the street. Welcome to the studio, the Temple of Technology. Bless the sound. We are live. We are live. What's up, guys? Thank you so much for coming on the show. Uh great to great to have you on. Uh what's been your reaction?

What what and and also I'd love to know like I know you're writing a piece. Uh I'm sure it's churning in your head, but like what is the what is the angle? What is the interesting thread to pull on here? I mean I don't know if I'm supposed to say this. Yeah.

The thing that I thought was the funniest was getting out of Union Station, the first thing I see are a bunch of sort of failed bureaucrats and shirts that say federal workers matter. Oh no. Um, it's just the overall sort of circus vibe of of uh of DC I think is funny.

Um, and then I'm paging through the Washington Post this morning. It's just like horrifying headline after horrifying headline and DC and they're talking about DC. They're like people things are tense. People are losing their minds. No one is at ease.

And it's just like I'm in this beautiful hotel overlooking the White House and there are all these people going to work. They're they're drinking coffee. People are happy. I don't know what they're talking. I don't like what you're reading is not what I'm experiencing in DC.

Every time I'm here, I'm just like, did I actually move home? Well, well, it's a momentum thing. The people at this event feel like they have real momentum and opportunity right now.

And then if you just lost the job you had for 20 years, then obviously they're not they're feeling and you know, they're not accelerating, right? I don't know, but I was I don't I hate to be Tom Freeman about it, but I was in a car today and the driver was like, "Things change here.

These people have to We're looking at these protesters who are outside and he's like, "They got to get over it. " Yeah, they got to get over it. That's what DC is. I mean, we were reflecting on this with the tariffs.

Like there's all these crazy headlines about like the global economy is destroyed and yet like the stock market's kind of flat this year. You know, it's not really like level down 30%. We'll see. We'll see what happens with the earnings predicting a recession. 70% chance.

But even then, we had a recession a couple years ago. It was very mild. Like we seem to be better than ever at just maintaining the status quo. Like America is somewhat lindy in this case. Yeah. You just got to decide what you want to do and work on that.

And you can't truly The reason I brought up the noise was because Also with those federal workers, they were just standing there. But then Jack Posich gets out there and starts a fight with them and everyone's like DC's in chaos. And I thought it's not that bad. It's like it's a lot of theater. Everything's fine.

You got to just ignore the noise and focus on your own And that's what I'm trying to do. It just so happens that the that I focus on is noise. That's my art that's running at the noise. The noise is my signal. The noise is my muse. That's hilarious. Is there a good metaphor for DC?

Is it like, you know, lunchroom tables in middle school or something? Like I feel like it's very clicky. Maybe even clickier than uh than San Francisco Tech. I don't know. I'm trying to understand what's the mindset of I think it's a little more sociopathic than that.

I think it's sort of like all the people care about here is power and they're willing to happily head over to the other table if they're in power, generally speaking. And then you have you have the exceptions, but mostly industry town.

This is why I felt like kind of out of my element in DC because in tech there's still a lot of like power games, there's a lot of status games and you can be like a famous founder, but at the same time there is the concept of locking in and actually going and building something.

But in DC, there's nothing really to build. Like there's no like, oh yeah, this person was heads down for 6 years and then produced like a beautiful piece of legislation. Like that's not how it works. Make stuff happen and sometimes that means a lot of dinners. Exactly. Yeah.

Anyway, uh can you talk about uh kind of your uh I mean obviously you've been in Silicon Valley forever. Uh uh how has uh just the mood around Silicon Valley and Washington changed over your career.

Uh what was it like when you first got to Silicon Valley and how has it changed like Yeah, maybe talk about your first trip to DC too. Yeah, that'd be interesting to hear ever in the context of work or or in the context of work and tech. Um well, the first my first work trip to DC would have been I wasn't in DC ever.

We didn't do things here. The first time I came out was for Pirate Wires. Oh, no way. Because I was invited out by a congressman and I realized that or maybe it was comfortably smug. That might have been the first time out.

Um, effectively and I realized there were all these people here who were reading Pirate Wires because they were interested in tech. They were interested in like the sort of tech Yeah. center, right, maybe perspective or let's say heterodox perspective within tech.

And um it's very different than what it was what 14 years ago. No one thought about government at all. In fact, it was considered like not I don't know a red flag if you cared about government. Um and then like a distraction.

The businesses changed and now you know the most exciting businesses a lot of them are working with the government and you have to understand how it works and so there's a lot of excitement here and also in Silicon Valley. Yeah. I always think that that's like an underrated thing.

I mean, a lot of people in uh in tech kind of criticize media, tech media when they start talking about politics or whatever, but I think that's like incredibly valuable because it's very hard for DC to get the tech perspective if they're if it's not from us, it's from, you know, somebody else. Yeah. Carisher, right?

Uh are you do you have that in the back of your mind when you're writing in terms of like the avatars that you're writing for, the messages that you want to send, or is it just like you're just going to write and they're going to read? I just get on the page and yeah, just let it rip. Like spit out what I'm thinking.

That's great. And uh and I hope it resonates. Oh, it certainly has been. Yeah. Yeah.

Uh so so I mean uh coming out of this, are there are are you trying to interview the politicians and get their perspective and kind of bring that back to Silicon Valley because Well, I'm here with uh one of my uh colleagues, Blake Dodge. Blake, who's a new writer at PWires.

So she's doing a bunch of interviews right now and kind of soothing around. she said gathering facts for our take down no um peace incoming. Yeah.

No, so she's just uh she's exploring now and um we'll probably you know collaborate on something but the interesting thing is it does feel like this is my experience but uh it does feel like it's hill and valley but there's not a ton not as much overlap maybe as you would you would like. Right.

There's like a lot of people from the valley, a lot of people from the hill and like technically we're in the same space, but like it's like tech people. I mean, I just don't think they know how to talk to each other.

Like I I think I even myself and I know that I know better, but I showed up today without a suit and I rolled up. I I didn't I don't I haven't been following the facts at all. I didn't even know where I was go. I did not know I was going to the capital building.

I just have gotten used to just looking at my calendar and doing things. So, I got here and I was like, "Oh, no. I I cannot be that guy. " So, I head back. But I that's a cultural vibe, you know? I've never had to wear a suit in in San Francisco. I didn't even own a suit until a few years ago.

Um or I think I had one for our LP meeting, but like that that it's that's it. So, and today you're wearing Fantino label. Is that guy good friend of the show? Yeah, we love him. A true craftsman. He is. He is. Uh were you surprised at how much uh press was allowed to to come today? Oh, yeah.

We went to the press briefing yesterday. We saw your name tag. Too big. We were sitting there looking around. and we were like we are the fish out of water here. Yeah. Uh I don't think so.

I think that journalists are looking for things to write about and there are a lot of people here that my question was more like obviously they would like to be here just because like there's so many ways that you could spin what's going on. I was just surprised that uh Delian instead of saying hey no. Yeah.

I think that broadly text relationship with the media is very different than it was 5 years ago. The war is over and there are actually plenty of writers um who are not unfair.

Like even New York Teddy Schifer writers about there like that's a guy who's just reporting on wealth and he reports what he sees in both directions. And I think that there are people who have integrity now.

I think it's just the the environment is different and you're going to they're going to be hit pieces, but you have to just read people's work and see who they are and what and and what kind of, you know, interview they run and then make a make an educated Yeah. guest.

Every once in a while, Teddy shows up with the with the telephoto lens and goes TMZ mode outside of a party, but, you know, for most of the time, he's just writing, you know, good writeups. It's good.

Are you uh obviously, you know, manufacturing, re-industrialization, defense tech are sort of like dominating the narrative here.

Is there anybody that that is kind of flying under the radar that you're or or any like industries specifically that you're that you're I feel like you've written a lot about like the sperm racing stuff and some of the like the zer stuff is where is the sperm race representation infuriating exactly yeah we do we need subsidy or do we need a tax on foreign no I think I was having a conversation yesterday and what's actually interesting is they've really expanded beyond tech defense tech it's energy there's much broader there's a much broader interest in the technology industry now, which is pretty cool.

People are open. Who was it? Oh, it was Delian who was talking to me about how uh uh senators and congressmen were just really excited to even talk, you know, to ramp or something, which a few years ago was just not on their radar. Totally. Yeah.

Keith was saying there's about four times more federal corporate cards than there are federal employees. Well, that and there was 80 80,000 charges at casinos uh like last year or something like that. I mean, gambling is the most American thing in the world. Federal team building matter. Yes. Yes.

Even if they're gambling. It could have been team building activities. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Team building. You take him to the gam, you take him to the slots. Anyway, slot. Yeah. What's the difference? Uh so so so what's next coming out of here? Um how do you think about um covering this from the Pirate Wire's perspective?

Is it is it just meeting people doing interviews downstream or is there supposed to be like a definitive writeup or new angle? You're you're just you're still on the hunt, right? I think we're still looking. I think probably a lot of people are going to do the just here's what I saw Hill and Valley.

Maybe what would be more interesting is to find some sort of meaningful interaction between someone in tech and someone in DC. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

There there's all these like big budgets and you see 150 billion in defense, but then you get down into like, okay, what is the actual mechanic of a seed stage or series A founder like actually getting a $10 million contract? Jacob Jacob was talking about this too.

Every Hill and Valley so far, there's been some policy or like some major sort of business activity that's come out of it. So, it's clearly working. The question is like if we've 10xed the size of Hill and Valley, are you going to get in 10x the output? Right. Yeah. Yeah, probably. I mean, last year's theme.

Yeah, last year's theme was Tik Tok. Have you been tracking that? Do you have a Do you have a Tik Tok take or have you evolved at all since last year? Uh, shut it down. Shut it down is how is my Shut it down. Don't even sell it. Uh, shut it down.

I don't even believe that you can sell it and have it still not be backed in some way that I don't understand. But I also just think that we're in Trump era now and like nothing matters and the rules change every day.

So it's like why am I going to sit here and be like the right policy for Tik Tok is because we don't we're not playing those rules anymore. It's a new set of rules.

The rules are it's like a bunch it's like Trump says some and writes executive orders and then a bunch of wizards and coats in DC fight back with like their random pen and it's like everyone is searching back to past court cases for I guess uh justification for what they're doing and it all is just to me quite chaotic but also I don't care.

I I my intention for this administration was to be calm while others were crazy. Okay. Um and I am trying my very to maintain the calmness through the storm. Yeah, it is a great time to be in media. Does it feel like it's a the best time possible to be in like tech media or is it like the the war is over?

We're the dog that caught the car. Yeah, it depends on what kind of press you're doing. I think right now what's happening in the tech press is people are trying to figure out who they are in the context of a very different culture totally and how they're supposed to navigate that.

You see the sort of center left like Atlantic type people who have pivoted wildly to just anti- uh anti-Trump antiro stuff. Um, but more so than I would say your standard issue leftist.

Like I think there's like this strange thing that's happening where people are just trying to find a lane and I'm trying to be I just want to take my time and write the stories that matter to me.

There's also that interesting development with the Ezra Klein abundance thing that feels like very new, but you're rolling your eyes. What's your abundance take? Because they just ripped it off of like your standard issue tech bro from years ago, right? Or Yeah.

like EAC or what about anatomy of next like I talked about all of these all of them all those anecdotes in fact in fact Derek the author the co-author of that book I saw at Founders Fund for a Charter Cities uh Charter Cities conference years ago many years ago which we hosted but I would describe that as finesse it's like we took your best ideas we rebranded them and now we're selling it ourselves yeah I mean you you incepted you I'm not saying they haven't they definitely successfully created something that they're now selling.

The question is whether or not the conclusion is the right con. The their conclusion their whole thing is like we've taken all of these ideas and we blame the fact that we don't have them on the people who created those ideas.

And I think the reason that we don't have for example um you know housing in California is it's just the people who are in charge of the government in California. It's very simple. Yeah.

At what point at what point do you expect tech's uh sort of you know basically attention to shift more towards California given it that it's the home of our industry? We've seen the Gary Gary go so back. Yeah.

You know the Gary the Gary Tans of the world obviously kind of were were uh took a big stand now probably a couple years ago. I would argue that he's suffered in some ways because of that just given how much negative attention he's drawn locally.

But at some point tech tech seems so focused on Washington that at some point you're just going to look around your backyard and be like actually we have some pretty big problems here. Well, I guess I think a lot of people are I think more people I disagree slightly.

I think more people are focused on local politics in San Francisco within our industry than any other San Francisco is different than like broadly in California though because like we're we're in Southern California and and I would say most of the people in the Gundo again have much more part partly is the nature of the industry.

LA is a lost cause. I think it's just like you're never going to save Los Angeles. We are saving Hollywood. We're bringing media to Hollywood. Bring media to the Hollywood. That's our big push. I I think that your best bet is San Francisco.

I really think that's tactically the the closest that's the best chance you have at fixing anything. And if you could save even one city, maybe you could do something else. But I think that Gary actually has made a lot of progress. Um and I don't think it's hurt his brand.

I think that it's it's uh he's he's I mean they were asking for his help online when he totally I wasn't saying it to hurt his brand. I was just saying like acceleration of like death threats and like people saying for him like stuff like that that's the price to play unfortunately.

It's kind of like raised the standard deviation of his experience like had some really great experiences and then some really negative ones as opposed to just the anonymous VC who flies under the radar doesn't tag uh switching gears a little bit. Did you have a reaction uh to uh benchmark investing in Chinese AI?

Did that feel that that was very contrarian in in some ways? But uh I was trying to I I was personally trying to understand the decision of like okay hill and valley is happening next week. We should invest in this company while Tik Tok is like probably should be banned. Maybe it's getting banned.

Maybe selling you know. I mean if their job is just to make money and they think that's going to make money. It's there's like a there's a moral question about it. But then are we going to break down every single investment that everybody I mean what is I don't know this is a much longer conversation.

I I guess I didn't feel the way that other people felt. I don't I have a much bigger problem with what they did to Travis Kalanick than I do with their investment in a Chinese company. Uh are you are you digging in at all this idea that feels like there's a divide right now?

It's like if you're a foundation model company, you want to tell people that we're in an AI war, an AI race, like we have to win the race. uh and that that's a a good narrative if you're needing to raise a lot of capital and uh sort of solidify significance.

The other side and this is a real side and this is actually Gurley's position which is that we're not in you know the idea that you can win the AI war or race and this technology is not just going to disseminate anyways is and he believes it's flawed.

What in in conversations that you've had this week, do you feel like you know just sort of uh everybody sort of understands we are in an AI race, we need to win it or do you what what and and kind of maybe what side are are you on? I don't think anybody knows anything.

I think AI is so like we're we're waiting for a paradigm shift and we're trying to also make really firm predictions about what happens after the paradigm shift. Yeah. And so I I think that uh all I kind of know is that it's obviously really powerful. It's obviously improving really fast. Yeah.

Um but if something is, you know, fundamentally changing society, then it's anyone's guess. I don't think that we know if it's centralizing. I don't think we know if it's going to be decentralized. I don't think we know if it's a race. I I I actually just I don't think we know.

I think all that anybody knows is that it's powerful. And um everything else is just people I don't know. I saw Tyler Cowan announce that we had reached AGI the other day and I felt like you're just saying Like I don't you don't do you even believe that? Like I don't think he believes that.

Like I I I think that I think that people are just I think that Yeah, I think that a lot of people were just saying That's kind of how I feel about the Trump administration.

Do you think there was an overreaction then over the weekend when when when For rolled out and it was just saying like Salana like you might be the goat like a lot of you know like you're one of the greatest Blazegate. So, so, so, uh, the latest chat GPTt 40 release, they they fine-tuned it.

Basically, any question you asked, it would be like, that is so brilliant. Mike, you are you are one of the best writers because I was like, yeah, I am. I am. I was like, these just accurately reading the landscape like I a keep it up. I love it.

Well, then you do think there's a story there potentially for pirate wires around that. That was the first time I felt like a model could be dangerous where if somebody is having, you know, significant uh delusions of grand delusions of grander mental health issues, they think they're God.

Uh they think they're on some, you know, confirms all of that and says, "Yeah, you should go a friend. " And you're like, you know, if I went to you and I was like, "Mike, you know, confidentially like I think that I'm God and I'm on this thing.

" You might be like, "Hey, Jordy, like let's you know, talk about it a bit more why like that's not quite right. That's not what I would do. That's not what I I will ramp it up. Someone shows up and is like like some old kind of guy and he looks at me and he says, "I'm you from the future. " Yeah. I'm leaning in.

I'm like, "All right. " Like I'm listen prove it. I'm here. I want the Give me the evidence. If you said you were God, I'd be like, "All right, like do some God Okay, we'll talk. " That's amazing. That's my We need you to do some reinforcement learning uh for Open AI. Yeah, this is amazing. Dial it in.

Thank you so much for coming on the show. We'd love to have you back. Glad you got your suit. There's more news and stuff. I'll see you guys later. Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk soon. I I I texted Sean Magcguire, told him we are ready. Um hopefully he can swing by.

In the meantime, why don't I give you a little We We should just literally read some uh Hey, how you doing? What's up? We are on air. On air. Um you can feel free to