China likely to beat the US back to the moon before 2030, analyst concludes
Aug 19, 2025
Key Points
- China has successfully tested all three critical components for crewed lunar landing—heavy-lift rocket, crew spacecraft, and lander—positioning it to beat NASA to the moon before 2030.
- NASA's Artemis program relies on advanced technologies like in-space refueling that require years more development, while recent Starship setbacks delay deployment of contracted lunar landers.
- China's derivative approach mirrors Apollo's proven design, contrasting with NASA's more complex architecture and giving Beijing a faster path to achieving a crewed landing this decade.
Summary
China is likely to beat the United States back to the moon before 2030, according to space policy analyst Dean Chung. Recent Chinese space program milestones make this outcome increasingly probable.
On August 6, China's Manned Space Agency successfully tested a 26-ton Lan Yu lunar lander using tethers to simulate lunar gravity outside Beijing. The test involved firing main engines and fine control thrusters to land on a cratered surface and take off, marking China's first demonstration of extraterrestrial landing and takeoff capabilities for a manned spacecraft. Days later, China conducted a 30-second test firing of the Long March 10 rocket's center core, which uses three cores in its primary configuration to lift roughly 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit. These tests followed a June launch escape system test for the Mengzhou spacecraft, which will carry astronauts on lunar missions.
China has now demonstrated progress across all three major elements required for a crewed lunar landing: a heavy-lift rocket, a crew spacecraft, and a lander. The trajectory suggests China is on track to meet its publicly stated goal of landing astronauts on the moon before the end of the decade.
The U.S. has grounds for skepticism. NASA landed humans on the moon nearly 60 years ago with Apollo, and the Chinese lander design closely resembles the Apollo lunar module, suggesting a derivative rather than novel approach. NASA's Artemis program aims to develop in-space propellant storage and refueling to enable reusable, lower-cost lunar missions with greater payload capacity. However, recent setbacks with SpaceX's Starship vehicle, one of two NASA-contracted lunar landers alongside Blue Origin's Mark Two, indicate it will take several more years before these advanced technologies are operational.
Chung notes that China's approach follows a deliberate progression typical of major Chinese space projects. While much of NASA's technical information is publicly available, China must still build and operate its own spacecraft, making successful tests like the Lan Yu demonstration critical steps forward. It now appears probable China will reach the moon before NASA this decade, winning the initial phase of a renewed space competition.