Saagar Enjeti: sports betting is structurally predatory, AI fear narratives are overblown, debanking push is being weaponized for porn companies

extremely scalable. We have Sager and Jetty, the co-host of Breaking Points with Crystal and Sager. Obviously, the realignment podcast, the second time on the show. He's also a girl dad. Welcome to the show up. How are you doing?

Looking sharp. Good to see you, Jent. Good to see you.

Good to see you. Uh, how's the family? Merry Christmas. How's How's the holidays?

Thank you. Merry Christmas to you all. Family's doing well. We've uh she she's old enough that we've got her pigtails going. This is True Girl Dad. Yeah, it's the as good as it gets.

Yeah. Yeah, that's amazing. Uh well, I'm glad that that's going well because it seems like everything else on your timeline is not going well. Uh what is uh if you had to pick one uh to snap your fingers and eliminate, would it be uh you know rising energy prices from AI data centers or uh or sports betting at the at the touch of everyone's finger all over the world?

Impossible. Impossible question.

Very tough cuz one is going to be

Wait before you before you say is it okay if I bet on this?

I'm sure somebody already out there. There's there's going to be a market that that's going to exist in terms of which one that I would pick. I don't know. Both are going to be very financially draining to the American household. Uh sports betting in the immediate term would probably be the one that I would ban immediately. But power use in the future. What was that? There's a reason that could be bad. There's a I I saw a study floating around that uh in states that sports gambling was legalized like the average credit score drops like 10 points or somewhere in that range. It has like effect effectively like a direct

impact on

Do you think that sports betting is something that will come for us all? Because I that the odd thing is that I have uh you know

John and I John and I have like some weird genetic like immunity because we went to Vegas for F1 and didn't gamble at all. Had no I I have zero interest. I don't have the bug or something. It just doesn't do anything for me. If I sit down

why it comes for assault.

Yes.

I'll tell you why it comes for us all. Even when if if you casually watch sports, casually watch the NFL. I don't sports bet. I think sports betting is bad. I still know the line on every game. So, in a way, you know, because that's how Well, no. I'm like, oh, well, so and so is the favorite or uh the overunder on how many yards somebody is going to throw. I shouldn't know that. People should know, but I do. uh even just casually, you know, the last time I was on here, I talked about how I think that there's a media bubble in sports because I think sports gambling is just pumping all these money into people with microphones who talk about sports. But that's part of the issue is in all mainstream sports coverage from ESPN, pardon my take, everywhere you go, a daily segment is I like the over, I like the under. Here you're going to take the first half. And so even if you don't bet, you can't help but think about the sport without thinking in sports betting terms. And that's what I would say is like frame domination, you know, where even for people who don't bet, they have to think in betting terms. So that's a winning that's winning in their part.

Yeah. Maybe I have a weird uh like a weird perception of it because I I I also don't watch sports. Like I really I really I watch like movies a little bit and uh but but I there's no there's no sports that I follow like regularly and so I'm I'm like I'm not even getting into the top of the funnel for this stuff and so it's really really hard to ladder me down and so I'm a little bit more me. Of course you were excited to hear that Trump would consider eliminating taxes on gambling.

This must have been for you.

Well, okay. Let's talk about this though, guys, cuz he said gambling winnings. Gambling winnings. And what I was crashing out about was there are no winning gamblers. It doesn't exist. There's a longitudinal study of sports betterers. Only 4% of people over 5 years ever took profit. 4%.

So, it is a 4%.

Here we go. Be in the 4%. I'll take those odds. You're telling me there's a 4% chance that I could be one of the greatest gamblers ever. I love those odds. I'll take them all day.

It does exist.

I got the over on me becoming a generational gambler.

I will tell you if if I had to bet, I would bet on both of you. But but statistically, it would be a bad bet. And so the reason I was crashing out is because that is going to give advertising to casinos and sports betting apps who are like, "Oh, your winnings are tax-free. There are no winnings." The winnings are fake. 96% of you are losers. And all it will do is it will increase that funnel of people who may not previously have sports be like, I taxfree winning. I mean, I can't lose, right? Except I'm going to lose. So, I think it's it's really disgusting. Uh, basically just giving away.

Well, we don't know what's going to happen yet. It was a comment and hopefully hopefully it doesn't go any fun. Well, since you're the resident uh Puritan on this show, uh I mean, do you believe that you can respons that you can drink responsibly? You can have a glass of wine every once in a while. Obviously, you don't want to become an alcoholic. Can you ever responsibly sports bet like Super Bowl squares? Super Bowl squares. That was that was the only thing that I ever did in college was I was in an office setting and they said, "Hey, there's squares. You put down $10. Whoever gets the right square gets a 100 bucks or something.

I I have never said people can't responsibly sports bet. But what I want to highlight is that responsible sports betting would put all these companies out of business. They literally cannot operate without addicts. Like what I'm trying to highlight for everybody is responsible sports betting would end the industry as we know it. The vast majority of the profit comes from a very small percentage of the customers. Which is why, look, this is the casino model, right? The the whales are the ones who fuel everything and they lose the most. So that's why they shower these people with gifts and they call them every day and they invite them to games and then send them to concerts and all this stuff is specifically to milk them for as much money. Basically a sales SDR that calls you with like a custom parlay for your specific Oh, I know you like this player and I know you love betting on the coin flip, so we're going to get you coin flip. What did you what did you think about the the policy the uh like an MBS policy in Saudi on like you got to be in your bag to to be getting cracking open.

Um so I mean in principle I'm I'm smiling a little bit but no I mean because I lived in the Gulf guys I can explain this to you. That's just a way to target the Indian laborers. So I oppose it. So the way that it works over there is that they create this entire social structure so that all the Indian, Pakistani and all these other laborers like the day laborers are basically excised from all polite society and they don't want them drinking. So they're just going to set an income cap to make sure that the foreign laborers don't get to have a drink as well as their own people. And it would just apply to like the wealthy white uh expats. So because I know that it's just basically going to further emiserate their like slave labor population, I do oppose it. But you know, just broadly, you know, I just want to get to the fact, you know, from the gambling thing, like there is no such thing as a gambling company that can operate profitably without with responsible gambling. Like if if it literally would cease to exist. And remember, cuz people always forget this. The sports betting apps, if you're actually good, they ban you. They literally do not allow you to place any large wagers.

Oh, they limit They limit you. They say, "We want you to be responsible here."

No, no, no. They don't limit you because you're responsible. They limit

Yeah. I think Nate Silver is banned from sports

betting. He is. Yeah. He's He's He's limited on all the major apps. My major question when somebody tells me they're like, "Oh, I'm pretty good." I'm like, "Oh, really?" I'm like, "Have you ever been limited?" And they're like, "No." I'm like, "Yeah, you're a loser then." I'm like, "If you're any good, you would just be limited. It means you're a statistical loser."

Yeah. Well, you need like a complicated network of, you know, people that can make bets shadow accounts. It's a whole thing.

And I mean, we were just talking to Matt Lavine about this, like Sesuana has a desk, like an actual trading arm of their firm. Like, it's very serious. Like, the guys, some guys trade oil and gas. Now, there's people that are trading trading the I can't name a sports team. The

sports lines,

the Yankees. Anyway,

well, that's the thing. The real bers, they don't care about the sport at all. They're just looking for value. They're like con They're always betting on like golf and tennis where Yeah. This one is up at 2 a.m. halfway around the world, but it works for you, so you're going to play. But but uh I mean in terms of like the actual politics of this, how does this how does this wind up becoming like where does this go over the next four years? It seems like Trump's sort of like leaning in, but is this actually going to is there a constituency here of people that want to say like, "Hey, maybe we need to rethink this at the national level." Well, already the tide is turning, guys. Uh, more recent Gallup polling showed that all age groups, including young people, the most increase is against sports betting. The governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, he actually said that if he could go back in time, he would never legalize sports betting, knowing what he knows right now. I think people can feel it, man. It's the most expensive advertising real estate in the world is all being bought by these gambling companies. You can intuitively feel that this is off. you know, nobody's getting rich if they're able to afford all of the stuff they're able to put in front of you. So, I think America is beginning to turn. Uh the Trump administration very recently, you know, you didn't let me crash out on what I'm crashing out the most on, which is weed. Uh but, uh, you know, the Trump administration is making their vice play right now. You know, they're doing very badly with young voters. Uh, so they want to try and reschedule weed and yeah, let's do some gambling winnings and the Tik Tok thing. It's like this libertarian uh kind of giveaway. But I I I think that really misunderstands why all of these younger people are even turning on the administration for economic reasons in the first place. The reason they resort to all of these horrible vice activities is because they cannot afford or at least feel they cannot afford the very basics of life like health insurance, being able to buy a house, crushing interest rates for a mortgage. So I would spend more of my time on that rather than a cheap trick like weed. But uh you know that that would require actually doing something. Maybe you get busted for weed, the arresting officer flips a coin, 50% chance you go to jail, 50% chance you get.

Uh let's let's talk about uh another thing. I'm sure you're thrilled about the Disney uh Open AI deal.

Uh I think it's I think it's incredibly bullish for Open AI.

It's really good.

So I just I I want to get I want you to agree with me first that it's bullish for Open AI at least over the next year that they're going to have exclusive

Yes. Yes. Yes. Literally because Yes. Literally because like like if you're a dad and your kid comes to you and says like I want to be in Frozen or I want to be in Star Wars. Well, there's only one app that can deliver that. And even if Nano Banana is a little bit better for today, it's like you'll go to Sora because it's there.

Yeah. Sure. It's bullish for users. Uh it's for for creating more users. I think it's one of the worst things that I've ever seen. I mean, last time I was on here on the show, I was like, Sam Alman is like, "Yeah, we're going to do AI porn." And I was like, "Oh, well, I thought you were going to cure cancer, but okay." Uh, and so now we're going to have Disney princesses uh to addict children like you just said, so that daughters and, you know, others will come to their dads and say, "Can you create a video of Elsa doing saying my name and doing this, this, and this so that we're continuing to breed the phone addiction." And as you guys all know, we're also going to see the most disgusting pornography known to man as a result of Yes, I know that they have controls and all that. They're very easily they're No, they're not. No, they're not. Have you guys been on Sora? Have you been on Sora or or Grock or any of these? They're not that good at it. Okay, you people people have been playing around with trying to create some pretty disgusting

John is a is a is a little too confident that the the

I'm pretty I'm pretty confident. I also have

Yeah. I just think I I don't that the internet will always figure out a way to jailbreak

and they will always find a way.

Earlier in the show, I went to Sora and I said, "Put me in a Sora video fighting Spider-Man and Darth Vader."

Okay.

And it said, "This content may violate our guard rails considering concerning similarity to third party content." So, whatever deal they announced, they haven't implemented it yet because I got completely blocked. Uh but uh I don't know. As I've scrolled, I I I don't scroll. Sora that often, but as I've scrolled, I have not seen shocking stuff. I was reflecting with Jordy about some of the crazy crazy stuff that was on the internet uh when when I grew up. I mean, the stuff that people would send you a link to, you'd open it up, it would be like jump scare level. I feel like I have not gotten that from chatbt randomly. I have not gotten that. I think I think if you want to make the the argument that you know this is

so bad because it's going to get kids more addicted to devices and their phones. Like you just got to go even further and say like well we should ban all electronic devices for children or buy banan and maybe maybe maybe maybe

speak my language brother. Yeah.

Well, how do you how do you feel about some of that? How do you feel about that new law in Australia? That's that's banning social media.

I love it.

Yeah.

You don't think it's going to create a bunch of why not put it on the parent? Why? I mean, it's like there is plenty of evidence out there. There are plenty of access controls. You can set a passcode. You can I mean, yes, like the really inventive 13-year-old can go out and make the money to buy the iPad and hide it under their bed every night. But like in general, parents do have the ability to, you know, effectively be the own authoritarian of their home. Why do you need the government? Why do we need a nanny?

Yeah. My concern with these laws,

as you guys understand. Yeah. Go ahead.

Yeah. My my my main concern is if you tell a group of young people like, "Hey, you can't use these apps,

there will be new apps create. It's not hard to make a social media app and there'll be new like kind of homegrown wild west social media apps where there's no reg like the the the the properties aren't doing any content moderation. and they don't have any groups that are trying to make sure that that um that you know pedophiles are not able to get on etc etc. So I think it'll just create a bunch of like dark corners of the internet that could very well be worse for kids.

It's certainly possible but uh to just answer like the spirit of the question which is basically like why should parents not be the sole responsible ones for this? In the same way that social media only works when everybody's on it, not being on social media works best when nobody's on it. And so if you talk to Jonathan height or others, what the mo the best and most successful experiments for schools for example, which are phone free or people who are opting out of of social media is being able to be in a social network where everybody else is also not on social media because one of the things that's often raised is like, oh, they're missing out on, I don't know, school drama or communication for this, this, and this. and they feel as if they're explicitly removed by the parent from like the social way that their uh high school or their social network operates. Whereas by explicitly making it a top- down way of saying no, nobody's engaged in it, it's going to facilitate a lot more actual like pro-social, real social behavior and make it easier in order to basic look at the end of the day what we're trying to talk about and this is what I always argue with libertarians like no this idea of like a totally free society is ridiculous. Like there so many different ways and like you could act quote freely which would impinge upon my freedom. That's why we have, you know, we have basic government and enforcement mechanisms. Ultimately, what we're trying to do on this is to decide what is the optimal way and for outcomes to facilitate happiness in the family unit and for our children. And there's just too much evidence here on social media and on phones. So, that's why I get with the Sora thing, especially in the totally unfettered like wild west that we live in here in the US. I just know this way that this is all going to go in a perfect world where everybody is very informed but you know right now in a lot of ways there's a huge class divide on phones like from the very very richest people you know are probably the least likely to actually give phones to their children but the anxious generation might be the bestselling book in the United States but let's all be honest like it's a class signifier right it's something that the top 25 30% have read are implementing have the time to be able to and then the iPad kid thing is still definitely not yet fully known, you know, for a lot of other people. And so I I think everyone should try to live under a more uniform standard. And yeah, that's why broadly I take your concern, uh, dude, about Australia and like backwater ways to get around it. But the government's sending a signal and we have enough data on gambling on other all other vices that when you send these signals especially with a real information campaign the behavior will reduce and there's a lot of different ways we can deal with the backdoor ways of getting around you and never make anything zero. How do we try to facilitate the best outcomes for everybody for all of our citizens? That's the way I would look at the Australia policy. Yeah.

Have you ever thought of setting up a, you know, breaking points, uh, you know, one of these neo cities? You know, you go down to South America and set up your pure

down to Honduras. Yeah. Down to Honduras. Uh, no, I don't have enough money for that, right? I don't have nearly enough to buy off the president and then get him pardoned whenever he deals drugs. That's That's not my bag. I'll leave that to a few of the other guests uh on your show. Uh, but no, look, I mean, at the end of the day, like, we have our country. Uh, we can just do it here. We don't need to leave. I think that the people feel that there's a problem.

Yeah. No, no, that makes sense. Um, let's talk about H2 H200's. Uh, Nvidia is now able to export them to China. The previous rhetoric was we're not going to give China the best. We're not going to give them the second best. We're not even going to give them the third best. We're going to give them this nerfed H20 chip that's two generations behind. Blah blah blah. Now, we're giving them the second best effectively. Uh the argument in favor seems to be keep the government out of the boardroom and Jensen is a is a founder of an American company. Let him sell everything. Again, to your point about the AI, it doesn't seem like you're doomilled. Is this nuclear weapons? No, it's AI slop. Let him let it happen.

If AI if slop is so bad, don't you want our enemies?

Don't you want they're much smarter than us and they're not going to allow any of that. They don't have any problems over there about Sora or about uh image generation. Do they really though? Do they they they have like incredibly high rates of youth unemployment? Are they not using the phone to kind of medicate?

Yeah. What are those 20% doing all day?

Yeah. I mean that's a great question. Um you know is it phone related social media? I'm not entirely sure. They don't seem to have the same issues at least in our way. Uh obviously they're going to have their own unique cir set set of circumstances, but on H.

Imagine imagine being one of these unemployed Chinese youth and having no job, but also no slop, no sports betting, no weed. What are you doing all day?

You're getting shamed by your elders for not having a job. That's what we need. All right.

I suppose I suppose.

Yeah. No, that's that's that's great. That's

Maybe you're studying. Maybe you're practicing. Maybe you're growing. You're studying the blade.

The blade. Yeah,

hopefully you're studying the blade.

Studying the blade.

But anyway, sorry. Uh to me H200s, it seems like a wild, you know, it to say what your your kind of uh articulation of the H200 policy. It's more complicated and I've spent the last couple days interfacing with some of the guys who are pro-exporting uh H200. I'll give their their argument. Their argument is to keep China on the US and Nvidia technology tree as long as possible. So what would happen according to them is if we cut off H200, what it would mean is that Huawei would have the impetus and the incentive to not only compete but to have all of the developers in China and everybody there explicitly build the software and everything on top of that, right? And so the argument that was posed to me was that it was a bad idea and a mistake to not have Android be very um to not have Android and other operating systems that are explicitly US-based be dominant in China and that the domination of Harmony OS is actually bad for the United States. And here was my counter and I'm really curious for what you guys think is that in a world as we see with Apple where we see a huge portion of US business which is based in China there has never been at least in my opinion over the last 2530 years since the PNTR with China the reopening of trade relations we have never had a situation where we have a huge business penetration in in China and that company ever really stands more for American interests. Usually what happens is that the Chinese use US market penetration like US companies market penetration to make that company a lot more malleable to Chinese interests and to basically make them this multinational actor which because of their ability policy and scale they can shape for their own interests and strategic let's say direction. So the point that I really am trying to make here is that I understand the technology tree argument entirely, but the longer that Jensen, Nvidia, and others see China as this gold mine, which he obviously does. You know, he's over there once a quarter kissing their ass on camera, you know, out in

They have a they have a they have a dedicated like R&D center in Shanghai.

Yes. Yeah. Right. But not it's not just that. He goes there and explicitly is like, I want to continue to do business in Beijing as long as possible. He's been lobbying for against a lot of these export controls. It's obvious that a lot of his stuff is getting trans shipped via Singapore or whatever. Uh even the Blackwell chip. I'm sure you guys saw that very recently uh with the Deep Seek research that came out. But the point the point remains he knows it's good for his business. The more that this remains kind of an opening, it's going to have somebody have to straddle both sides and it's going to be a lot more beneficial, I think, for the ability of the Chinese to shape him as opposed for us to be able to have our companies working in our national interest. And look, I mean, the more libertarians who are listening to the show would say our companies shouldn't even work towards our national interest. Their sole job is to make profit. I think that's a ridiculous argument, you know, sitting here in Washington and especially just over the last 30 years. I just don't think that there is a good example from Hollywood to tech or anywhere else where they've made a lot of money in China and they become you know very reliant on that business line where they have not shaped themselves as lobbyists against you know any more hawkish Chinese action.

I I I think the my read on it generally is that selling into China will make it more expensive for them to reduce their reliance on

right

the US AI stack. they still will do everything in that they can to reduce that reliance but

which they are

um yeah

but uh but yeah it's going to be more expensive because there's clearly the Chinese companies in AI have a lot of demand for chips

and you know dollars that they spend with Nvidia and other other players are dollars that aren't going back into local you know kind of national champions

trying to think of a counter example and all I can come up with is the Hermes Birkin bag as we've exported the Hermes Birkin bag to China.

Well, that's French. That's a French company, not a US company,

right? Uh, but they have become dependent on it and the more Birkens that they buy, the harder it is to rip out the authentic Birkin bag, much like the Nvidia GPU where the CUDA stack and the open- source CUDA ecosystem has been built up around. No, I I I'm I'm still somewhat sympathetic to the to the uh, you know, hooked on the AI stack replatforming. I I I just want to say I don't think it's fully I don't think it's wrong. I think it misses the forest for the trees. They're looking at it purely from a technology question. I'm trying to point out the dangers of extending this relationship. And also look, let's look at the Chinese side. The Chinese were like, "Yeah, we may not even allow H200 in the country because they want Huawei to compete. They want to create."

I think they said that. I think they said that because of Lutnik's comments that they were very offended by which he was like, "We're trying to get him addicted. we're not going to give them our first, second, third, fourth. We're going to give them our fifth best. And they were like, "Actually, we don't want any."

And also like the country is not a monolith. Like it's very clear that like even if the CCP says like absolutely not, they're banned. Like there's still a world where like a Chinese company smuggles them in and uses them against the CCP's will because and like that could have a dynamic where that boosts the CUDA ecosystem further. Although I don't know why you'd be open sourcing uh CUDA software if you're stealing Nvidia or smuggling Nvidia in. That's probably a good way to draw the eyeire of the CCP. Uh but but who knows? Of course, you know, we we'll see how this play plays out. Um I I I still think a lot of the reason why this H200 news is not so much of a firestorm is because this year has been somewhat of the end of the AI doomer narrative. And just we've been backing off this idea that these are nuclear weapons. More and more people have been using the models for I mean chachi is three years old now. Opening eye is 10 years old now. And and after three years of everyone saying or all the you know the wild crazy people in Silicon Valley saying it's going to kill you next year. It's like okay boy who cried wolf once the sky is falling the second

it's going to kill kill you more slowly because of everyone falls in love with.

Yeah. Yeah. It's become it's become more abstract. And so I think this this idea that like oh just like one more training run and then it's the super intelligence and it's run away and it's going to completely dominate and like it's it's either the United States or or China. That narrative has kind of fallen by the wayside a little bit and so I think people are are maybe more more accepting of you know export controls loosening. Uh my my my question is just like like do you agree with me that it was a phenomenal L by the tech community to come out so early with this like AI is going to kill everyone narrative that just feels like AI is the first technology that we've had since you know the phone social media software and the cl the internet all of those were products that I feel like they were technologies that were enjoyed by people for years and then we had the conversation about what are the phones doing to us? Like, but we got 10 years of like phones are cool, right? And then we got, okay, maybe we should, you know, understand perspective with AI. It's like out of the gate, we hate it.

That's why I'm I'm not yet ready to say like, oh, they stopped saying that. I'm like, no, they still say it, guys. Like Elon was on Rogan the other day being like, hey, you know, you're never even going to have to work again. Like, don't worry about it. And Jensen, what did he say recently on Rogan? He's like, all knowledge in the world will be AI and that's fine. I was like, uh, is it fine? Uh yeah,

I was watching I so I was watching Sam Alman on uh on Fallon and and and Fallon comes to him with the with the premise of like give me the pros for chat GBT. Give me some examples of how people can use it for good things. And then he's like and I got to ask you about the cons like what are the cons of this technology? And I was like no no no. If Tom Cruz was sitting there doing the interview and he's like, "Give me give me the reason give me some reasons why, you know, movie goers might like the new Top Gun and then he's like, "Now give me some reasons why people might hate the new Top Gun." Tom Cruz would be like,

"What are you doing?" Like, "No, I'm not talking to you about the negatives of my movie. Get out of here. I'm here to promote my movie." And and same thing with, you know, any technologist that goes through the normal late night circuit. Normally, it's like, "Oh, wow. you you invented this new trinket like and you can buy it at the local Walmart this Christmas like amazing you you made a gadget and with AI we just it's always about the like the negative has just been so drilled

well that's because it's new people

I know yeah that's what I'm saying

yeah it's like you could write a story every day about violence that happens in grocery stores right but it would not grocery stores have been around so long it's everyone knows like every time you walk into a grocery store

who controls all grocery stores okay It's like, you know, it's a little different. And look, I mean, again, to their point, like Sam and them don't do themselves no favors. So when he's like, I can't imagine raising a baby without Chat GPT. Look, maybe just me. I'm like, whoa, man. I I don't know. Again, it's just one of those where look, they sold domination of our lives, our tech, our not only in terms of our digital lives, but saying that they were going to take away our physical ability to work, uh, education. They said, "We're going to take away all knowledge and we're going to feed it back to you." So, I'm still not ready. You're

extrapolating. He said, "All knowledge will be AI."

But you're sort of piecing together like three different statements, which is bad.

Yeah, but that's how people perceive the tech industry.

All Reddit, all Reddit will be AI. There'll be one human on Reddit just running around talking.

That's the [ __ ] that they say, guys. They're like, "You don't need to work anymore." Uh, what's is it Daario? I mean, you guys are acting like this is 3 years ago. I'm talking about like 3 months ago. You know, all the comments I just made, I think, are literally all within the last month. So, the they're continuing to feed the narrative. Um, and I think people believe them and and I think that's the danger.

Well, fear fear really sells to the capital markets. Like, if you if you're if you're somebody that has capital and somebody tells you that

like all jobs are going to go away or huge half of all knowledge work, what do you want to do with your money? you want to give it to the guy who's going to take away the jobs, right? And so I think that is the challenge is these people are having to go around and give the optimistic vision

one hour and then the next hour do the fear-based version of the story and then the next hour do the optimistic and but then the content just gets shared everywhere, right? So it's like then everybody sees it and they're like, "Wait, I don't really know what to believe at this point."

Yeah. My my I mean last time I was on the show, John, I have stolen your line completely. Credit card. I thought it was the best comp that I've heard is you you were like, I think this will be like the credit card. We just made transactions more frictionless. It created more wealth. People built on top of it. And in in general, people's lives were like mostly better. And it didn't, you know, like horribly change anything, but it definitely was very valuable. I I love that comparison. That's kind of the modal one that I'm working with right now.

Like leaks into all the different cracks. And I mean there was there was data yesterday from our our sponsor ramp that uh 55% of businesses are they don't pay for AI

and that's like and it's slowing down. It's like flatlining too. So it's sort of like a bombshell like okay like there's a lot of businesses out there that are just like I'm good and it's like they are good because they're using other products that probably have enough AI in them. And so if they're on

so they're indirectly they're indirectly buying AI because they hired a creative agency to make the logo and the creative agency uses AI or whatever

or you know their backend finance and and all I to I totally agree with you guys but that also doesn't justify the valuations and that also doesn't justify it might actually it might it might justify the valuations. I think it doesn't it doesn't uh it doesn't justify the the panic and the fear and the that it's going to kill everyone. It's like it's like if we're talking about the credit card, it is like much more incremental. But of course, there are other sides because we we have the social media angle. The

I agree that that's where it'll end up. I'm mostly with you, but I can't help but take them all a little bit seriously. I mean, these are the wealthiest, most powerful people in the world. So, like when the wealthiest guy in the world says, "I don't need to work anymore." And especially if you're walking out there and you feel very out of control of your own life and you hear that, you hear about the data center stuff that I've talked about here. You have a lot of fear about your own children and their addiction. You're watching their behavior. I mean, do you guys ever see your kids' uh you know, like my daughter is 7 months old, man. She's crawling for the phone. Like, it's it's it starts so early, like already I'm like, "Oh my god, I can't even use this thing in front of her." That makes me concerned. Does it make me a doomer? No. But it does make me feel like it makes me immediately calculate some of the downsides of the use of technology in my life. letting her go for that phone might be what gets her into the 4% of gamblers that wind up making money. You got to start her young. You got to start her young.

I forgot about that. You're right. You're right. Is there is there an optimistic story being told by the cannabis industry about weed anymore? I feel like that one is just like people are just like, "Ah, okay. It's it's

Well, they're still faking medical benefits, which is completely bullshit." Yeah. I mean, they're they're still talking about supposed medical benefits. There's a huge new study that just came out in JAMAMA. Almost all of the so-called medical benefits. Total BS. It's all fake. People just want to get high. It is what it is.

Oh, you know, oh, somebody, you know, they're always talking about people with cancer. They're talking about seizures, epilepsy. The anxiety one is the fakest one of out of all of them. But, uh, yeah. I mean, they're always, you know, oh, it helps me sleep. And it's like, well, it knocks you out. That doesn't mean it helps you sleep. But it's like, does alcohol help you sleep? No, it's actually makes your sleep, you know, 10 times worse. You may not be, you know, awake, but that doesn't mean that you're asleep.

You'll be happy to know. We were looking we were looking at a new studio space here in LA and it checked every single box. It was a great space and and but right across from it, you could see out the window like a a pot store and I was like, "No way. I would there's no I just don't want to look at the the flashing lights and the the

there was another there was another studio that we looked at where it was like the royal flesh of like of like uh gambling sin companies. It was like but the previous three companies had been like an adult content uh a weed company and then also a gambling company. We were like that is just a cursed building.

It was like an amazing amazing amazing building.

We told our broker we're like sorry.

It's just like it has bad vibes like we can't possibly be there.

I totally agree. Oh, John, we should do debanking on the thing. Yeah, tell me. Yeah, this is so interesting, guys. So, you guys know about the whole debanking, you know, Andre Zuckerberg, everybody goes chokepoint 2.0.

So, the Treasury the Treasury Department takes this seriously and they conducted a study and they just put out their report two days ago from the office of the comproller and I was reading it this morning and it's like, oh, they've unfairly targeted gun companies. I was like, okay, you know, that's bad. They've unargeted unfairly targeted oil and gas. I'm like, "Oh, that's ESG. We hate that." They're like, "The banks have unarget unfairly targeted the adult industry." And I was like, "Whoa, whoa." I was like, "Hold on a second. Wait, what? What was that?" So, they are actually pressuring the Trump administration right now is pressuring via this report banks to do business with porn companies. Now, why do the banks not want to do business with porn companies? It's not just vice clauses. It's because they're afraid of the internal standards that these companies have been doing now for decades where they're often in violation of the law whenever it comes to children exploitation all of this and they don't want anything to do with that. That's why Only Fans, you know, had that problem at one point. So our great the the debanking conversation is now basically being weaponized, you know, by the government uh to potentially force the largest financial institutions to do business with major porn companies. So this Jamie Diamonds, he's like, I've had enough. If you twist my arm on this one, I'm I'm

Come on. The idea he doesn't want to do business with the porn companies cuz he has a heart, like get out of here, okay? Like they're desperate to take their money. They just don't want their risk. I don't know about that. It's not that big of an industry. JP Morgan has like trillion.

Come on. What was it? 2.2 billion from consumers in the US just last year.

It's not nothing.

Yeah. What is that?

That's only fans.

You're talking What do you We had a guy we had a guy on the show earlier who uh brokers big land deals, ranches. What do you think the odds are that Breaking Points a decade from now is just based on like a big ranch property in Montana and you're just yelling into the microphone?

It might. It's It's possible, man. You know, regener regenerative farming uh just fully off the grid. Uh except for Starlink, right? I'll need Starlink to be able to zoom in uh to be able to do shows like this, but it wouldn't be a bad idea.

I put it I put it at 55%.

You want to make a market? Should we make a market on Khi?

Yeah, making a market. What What was Tar's exact quote? By the way, Tar, if you're listening, I've been trying to get in touch with you, man. Please come on my show. Uh, but Tar, what what exactly did he say? He's like, "Our goal is to be able to create

going on breaking points is like Sam going on Tucker."

Yeah. Hey, that was good for Sam, wasn't it? Because it showed that he was open to uh difficult conversations. So, listen,

no PR person in Silicon Valley believes that. But I I I I actually do agree with you. I do think it was good.

No, I mean, uh, look, if if if you're going to live in a world where you're going to, you know, make all of these claims and you're going to have a high level of distrust already from the Democratic populace, then you're going to have to go out there and defend your business. I mean, all of the big tech companies have been doing that or had done that for a decade prior. I know that they all now think that that was bad. I totally disagree. I think going on podcasts where you're just fluffing your product all the time makes you look even more disingenuous and you should come face hard questions. But yeah, I mean he said we're going to make a market between every difference of opinion. And uh I Yeah. So look, Mr. Tar, I would love to speak with you about why you think that's a good idea and vision for our future and some of the protections uh that you may have in place. John, did you read the prediction thing I sent you about the Russian map? I love this story. This just came out. So I actually used to be an intern there. It's called ISW, the Institute for the Study of War here in Washington. What they do is they create battle maps. And so there was a poly market for like 1.3 million

on this particular map

that was trading on this map and there was like a 33,000% payout if Russia seized a particular town in Ukraine on this date. And the story that's now come out is that the guy who worked at the think tank altered the map specifically for that date so that the market would resolve in that 33,000% payout for that specific date of bet. And now uh the the think tank has actually come out and said that they fired that person and that he violated their internal principles by going in and editing this map beforehand. And it was a sizable enough market. We're not talking about one of these $5,000 ones. We're talking about 1.3 million. So, I just want to highlight that, you know, just in terms of uh how these prediction markets and all that should work. I've been reliably told no realistically large market uh even trades on anything degenerate. I can't think of anything more degenerate uh than betting on the fate of individual Ukrainian towns in a war against the really dark. What if you just load what if you just load a billion dollars into a world peace contract and then everyone has an incentive to bring world peace around?

You're going to need a hell of a lot more than 1 billion if you're if you're going to be about 2.2 billion. You're going to need a shitload more than 1 billion trillion. I I but I I do believe in the next call it one to two years we'll see even darker market specifically around individual people like y

John was John was joking uh uh offline yesterday he's like Jordy I'm going to load a market that Jord is going to have a I'm going to put a million dollars into a market that Jordy's going to have an amazing year next year he's just because I'm betting on you

he's gonna he's going to bet on me because he's my friend he wants to bet on me and what what happens somebody says says, "Well, if I can make Jordy have a bad year, I can

make a lot of money." So,

there you go. Anyways,

the guys, the one I'm worried about the most is elections because uh you know, now we have state not just the national level. I I don't think the national level will be as corruptable, but what I worry about the most is individual counties and these markets already exist. So, I mean, come on. Like if you guys know anything about our election system, an individual clerk in an individual county, the ability to swing let's say a mayor's race and people on Polymark already do these like parlayes style debate, you know, bets where they'll be like all ex counties in the state will go for Trump or something just because they have a little bit better odds. These are massively open to manipulation. county level races, mayoral, uh, at the state representative level, there is just way too much ability. Like the one I just gave you all is the classic example of somebody being able to manipulate just because it was based on a think tank map and they couldn't. They never thought, oh, some guy making probably 25 grand a year who makes the map isn't susceptible to a 1.3 million market. But I mean the in a lot of cases our election infrastructure it relies on volunteers you know it's not even people who are paid. So I'm very worried about stuff like that or individual primaries where there's not as much scrutiny. The the Yeah. I mean already we've seen the there was the Google insider. Did you guys see that one?

I couldn't get to the bottom of that because what was weird was that that was that that was published by one of the one of the

Yeah. I was like, "Why are they why are they admitting to this?" And it's like, "No, they're not. They're bragging."

And so and so I I I I don't know. I don't know that I should even believe that it's real because it's so counterintuitive that you would like kind of self snitch in that way. It was very very bizarre and and I didn't see it like truly fact check. So I just kind of wrote it off as like who knows just chaos on the timeline,

right?

I don't know.

Anyway, thank you so much for coming on the show, Jordy. Anything else? We could do this all day, but we'll have to have you back a couple weeks.

What are you What are you doing? Anything that fun this weekend? Let's lighten it up this way. Oh, we're just we're going shopping. Final final Christmas. That That's all it is.

Merry Christmas. Let's play some Christmas music.

Thank you so much for coming over.

Thank you guys for having me. I love you guys.

Love you, dude. You

too, man. I'll see you.

See you.

Bye.

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I better have one.

Eight sleep last night. I got a 90.

I got a 90. You're lay that sound effect.

You're cooking the books. You're cooking the books.

You're cooking the books.

You're cooking the books. You're putting a bunch of weights. You're putting a bunch of weights in the bed when you leave in the morning.

No, no, no. Tyler loaded $10 into No. John will have a good sleep. And so I had to do it to win the $10.

And hope hope everyone enjoyed the the conversation with Sager. I think it's uh it's critically important that TVPN not just be an echo chamber of capitalism, libertarianism

and uh you know I think uh

it's important.

What do you think about

important to have an open dialogue?

You like an echo chamber?

I love echo chambers.

I love I was going to say I mean

I was born I I feel like I disagree with every single one of his points.

Okay.

Like uh elections like that's like there's so much value in the information of like who people think is going to win. Yes.

If you're a local business owner, there's a local election. Yes. Like there's and and maybe one one of the candidates says, "Oh, we're going to do this this tax. We're going to start

um you know, change the the regulation around billing certain types of buildings or something." There's so much value in knowing that.

Yes. Yes. Seeing that 6 months in advance, even even one month in advance, that is valuable.

If if if he see if he's saying that someone has the incentive to like actually mess with the

uh election, Yeah. I mean, that's like a felony. So like after one person like does he think that more people at the um ISW are going to mess with the map?

Yeah. I don't know. Yeah.

It's like one Yeah. The first time it happens it's bad. But

it's like Yeah. If there's if there's uh if there's economic incentives to to meddal in local elections like

Yeah. Like like at the end of the day there are laws. Um I don't know. I think yeah I I would be much more worried about a normalized sit situation of the opposite where uh where the insider trading not not not changing the un the the underlying outcome of reality based on a big market but the opposite like you know how the market will resolve so you size up the market as much as possible. Um but we're clearly going to be grappling with both of these issues