Swan Land Company owner: tech workers are moving to Montana, land appreciation running 10–20% over five-to-seven years

through one simple API. Uh we will bring in Mike Swan, the managing owner of Swan Land Company. Mike Swan, how are you doing? Welcome to the show.

Doing well, gentlemen. How are you?

Merry Christmas. Thank you so much for taking the time to come talk to uh two, I don't know, probably random people.

What was the What was the timeline here? We saw the ad. Was it Monday? Yeah, it was in the it was in the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal in the special mansion section. We saw the Swan Land Company advertisement and we were like, we've wanted to invest in land. We think that there's a lot of people in our audience might be interested in

I've talked on the show before that I think the the the new generation of investors. They want to buy crypto coins. They want to, you know, be trading options. They want to, you know, do NFTTS, all this stuff. if they want to uh

but maybe they should just be buying land and I feel like uh land is just kind of overlooked but certainly not by you. So we were excited to have you on the show to give us kind of an update on

uh your business and how how investors are uh approaching uh the asset class uh lately.

No, thank you for having me on, gentlemen. It's uh really I've really been looking forward to joining you and and uh sharing a little bit of what we see in our in our arena out here in the west as far as um uh ranch properties uh investment properties uh in the Rocky Mountain West which we primarily serve. Um basically right now what we're seeing is is as we always have that uh you know land in the western part of the United States isn't going out of style anytime soon. especially in Montana,

we saw an explosion with with the rise of of the the Yellowstone phenomenon and and how that uh that really hit us out here.

Wait, was it actually driven by the show? The show really caused people to

it amplified what we were already seeing out here in our in our market, but uh it certainly didn't uh it didn't slow down the process or the interest in in Rocky Mountain uh ranch property. So, of course, you you receive the phone calls that uh you know, talking about the train station and and uh and and all the the entertaining aspects of what Rip uh Rip and that show went through. But but that's a that's obviously Hollywood doing its best to to portray to portray our part of the world in a very unique and and unrealistic light. But,

you know, we're we're seeing we continue to see investments in in our part of the world. Um you know what our market's very cyclical as we see many of the markets uh and we study those and keep very close tabs on what the markets are doing. But you know currently right now with with the stock market where it is and and and the cash and the financial sector being as strong as it is right now the capital flow has really been out of real estate. It's uh it's gone into the market. It's going to stay in the market until we see until we see some corrections there and then and then typically we see that pendulum swing back and money flow back into.

So that that's somewhat counterintuitive. I would imagine some folks, maybe some smarter investors when they feel like markets are maybe a little bit overheated or overvalued might say, "Hey, this is a good time to rotate into uh a less liquid asset like land or ranches and have some stability." What you're saying is it's maybe the opposite. A lot of people just wait for a correction and then and then get maybe a little bit scared at that point and then seek more stability.

No, I think we're going to start seeing that in Q1, Q2, and next year. Uh I think we're going to start seeing that movement back into the back into our arena. Uh but we've certainly seen a slowdown, you know, early uh 25 all the way through 25. It was a relatively slow year outside of some several large transactions that we've seen in the in the marketplace. But we feel as far as looking at the markets and the economic indicators as well as the financial people that we work with that we're going to start seeing that come back into the market early in early in 2026 and really see it ramp up in our in our neck of the woods. So, you know, our focus right now is is getting quality listings, getting them priced well, getting them priced in the market. Uh we continually see anywhere between a 10 and 20% rate of appreciation in these western Montana ranch properties. Um a lot of year over year

I'd say that's over a 5 to sevenyear period is what we typically see especially in the Rocky Mountains. Now there's a lot of factors that play into that.

We see properties where you have a quality water component, fishing component, hunting component, there's timber on the property. different amenities like that obviously have a higher rate of appreciation than straight agricultural land where you're grazing cattle. Um but but there's getting to be a a real appetite in the investment world for these quality a properties just like there are with with quality stocks or quality business investments whatever it may be. Uh we see the same thing in the in the Rocky Mountain portion of you know in our real estate world as well.

Yeah. H how many how many people out of the buyer pool really care about having a a like a high quality water source on the property? I think uh uh our our audience primarily works in and around tech. Uh every every once in a while a headline will pop up of some tech founder, you know, buying a doomsday ranch. I think a lot of people like the idea of having a a place with a dedicated water source that, you know, if stuff uh hits the fan, they can escape there. But what percentage of the buyer pool really actually cares about making sure there's um you know, a lake or a river or or some type of natural spring? I'm assuming a lot of these properties you can just drill down and and access uh well water, but uh how does that work?

You know, a lot of it Jordy deals with the fishing aspect of it. Um the blue ribbon trout fishing in western Montana is some of the best in the world. Uh so so primarily it's more of a recreational driven okay

uh component of these properties and it is necessarily an end of times or a doomsday aspect to the property. So, the fishing, we always refer to to quality fishing water on these properties as really the golden thread on uh on ranch real estate and and recreational real estate in the Rocky Mountains in that a we we typically see these properties appreciate at a much higher rate and b they never go out of style and there's there's only there's a there's a finite amount of those a properties that are on legitimate fishing water available in the Rocky Mountains. So when they do come available, they're they're typically in very high demand.

And the premium over

the pre is what's the what's the what would you say the premium is over a property that doesn't have a running water or lake or or any of those things? Is it 50%? Is it 100% 200%.

Say each each one of these is so unique, Jordy. That's what's hard about it. But it's it's significantly higher. Uh then you know you then you go to you know the the timbered properties the the properties that are in the mountains with the mountain setting and that everybody sees in the magazines that that you real obviously recognized in in the magazine ads that we put out. But uh the timber, the elk, the big game are are always an attractor as well as to those investment grade buyers. You know, back to what you were talking about from the tech standpoint, it's remarkable how Boseman's exploded as as really an emerging uh an emerging market in that tech industry. We're seeing a lot of tech people uh high netw worth tech individuals uh relocating in Montana,

relocating in in the Rocky Mountains in general, uh as well as buying large properties. you know, we we're we're tied by a lot of NDA uh documents and NDA uh uh contracts, but but there are a number of of high netw worth individuals that re that are relocating out here for a number of reasons. One is from a safety standpoint. Uh they see Montana as very safe. They see the Rocky Mountain West is very safe. as as you see the crime rates in some of these urban areas that that uh that you know regardless

of your political affiliation, there's there's concern about it. And I think as there continues to be concern about about that, uh we're going to continue to have people that are driven to this market, seeing as a safe, secure place to to raise their family, to have their kids, to have their family, you know, a family compound where they can gather at.

Yeah. What uh what kind of opportunities are there to actually monetize and and generate yield on a on a ranch property? Obviously, if you can just buy a piece of land and and let it appreciate over time, are there opportunities to uh actually utilize uh some of these properties even if you're not, you know, there to uh generate some type of incremental yield?

Absolutely. you know, the the ROIs on these is is is much lower than what uh a standard investor would would would demand out of their portfolio. So, a lot of it when we're working with buyers is is changing that mindset that we're looking at a long-term appreciation. Obviously, the depreciation schedule and the depreciable assets that that are uh contained within these properties is of significance to a lot of these buyers that they can use directly on their on their tax returns. Um but typically the ROI on on a cattle ranch if you can get a a two even a 3% return on some of these is quite good. Um the the land prices have gotten to the point where it really agriculture is making it is it's hard for agriculture to really sustain and to and to pay for any of these. Um, I had a a a a good friend of mine, a egg family tell me that, you know, really the ability for agriculture to pay for these ranch properties, farming is a little different, but on a a on a strictly cattle standpoint, uh, finding a way to get cattle to pay for these properties really, uh, that that that wagon came unhitched back in the 70s. So today it's more of looking at how you can get the agricultural operation to pay for your operation to pay for your expenses, hopefully get uh a decent paycheck out of it. But, uh, where you see the return is obviously when you go to sell that real estate or you look to 1031 out of an existing operation and upgrade into something a little larger, um, in a in a possibly not so desirable area that isn't commanding these record prices from a a recreational standpoint, if that makes sense. Does it feel like uh essentially most of the land that you're seeing uh come across your desk has been properly surveyed such that uh people aren't seeing it as a gamble. They're they're not buying and saying, "Oh, well, like maybe there's a chance there's gold there or or oil." Because we just saw a a there was a new rare earth element deposit that was found in Utah and uh and the the Wall Street Journal called it the most significant critical minerals reserve in the United States. Uh a whole bunch of rare earth elements and that seems like how were we not looking for that already? Uh but I but I imagine that most of your clients are not thinking about uh their land purchases as lottery tickets, right? So how do you think about these like wildcard events that seem to be happening and yet what is your what is your client base actually experiencing?

You know, we really don't see that in our client base. It it um typically what our clients are looking for is preservation.

Sure. Um, we have buyers that are typically very conservation-minded that look at the at the land as how they can improve it, how they can possibly um reduce man's footprint on that landscape, enhance the wildlife, enhance the the agricultural components, enhance the the land, so when they leave it, it's it's a little better off. A lot of what our role is is actually educating these buyers to, you know, there's a there's a great there's a great shot right there on a ranch that we have listed in northern Montana. But, um, a lot of these new buyers that are in our arena today are looking at ways to that that they can help preserve the West, which is very refreshing in a lot of ways. They want to find ways that they can preserve the agricultural way of life, that ranching way of life. Often times we'll see buyers that'll come in, acquire an asset, and then go back to that owner and say, "Okay, um we understand that the that the margins in agriculture are very tight. Let's let's relook at this asset and say, okay, if we if we have an influx of capital and we have the ability to to put some capital into this property, what can we do to enhance it both from a production standpoint, but also from a recreational and a conservation standpoint as well?" looking at it through a little different set of glasses and possibly what that operator has been looking at it in the past and and finding ways that they can better preserve the ground, preserve that landscape, preserve that Montana and that western way of life and not just come in and look at mining it, developing it, uh carving it up, putting

small ranchets on it or whatnot. We've really seen a shift away from that development aspect into more of a conservation-minded buyer. Mhm.

What's the process if you acquire a piece of land to actually build on it? We're based here in California and the process is absolutely insane. I live in Malibu. If there's a there's a property that you might look at, it might be reasonably priced, but you're looking at maybe six years to actually develop plans, get them approved, and actually start, you know, uh getting getting to the point where you could really occupy the space. What's it like in Montana from from everything from a permitting process through even just like labor costs, all that stuff?

I I don't know if I want to answer that question necessarily. I don't want to see a big a big rush all of a sudden into our into our market, but it it I I think you'd be pleasantly surprised, Jordy. It's significantly smoother. Uh we don't have the bureaucracy in Montana that you'd see in a lot of other states. Obviously, there are processes. There are permitting processes as far as uh building permits, electrical electrical permits, and whatnot, but but uh nothing remotely close to what you deal with in California. Um you're it's much more personal. It's uh it's much more hands-on. Uh it's much more streamlined. Um and and not always is it um you know that with that being said, we have a um a development here in Montana called the Yellowstone Club, which you may or may not be aware of, which is a turned into quite a a billionaires resort area.

Um very very high-end uh very high-end. It's the who's who and in the financial sector that that uh are residing in that area. And what we're seeing is really the high high-end uh construction taking place in that kind of in that sector of our state. It uh you know, we'll see some building in the more remote areas, but but not the extravagant building like like we see up in the Yellowstone Club.

Yellowstone more modest

like a two-bedroom condo for 20 million. Is that pretty common place?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. How much does it uh h uh how much does it cost in general to to work with you in general? Uh do you you know is there like a like a floor price or uh h how do people start uh to get into ranches, farms, land? Like what are all the different financial products or or or actual uh opportunities uh that you see people come to you with?

You know, a lot of it, John, is just sitting down with a client and interviewing them. We spend a lot of time upfront.

Uh our time is money just as a lot of our our our clients, their time is money as well. So we like to spend a lot of time upfront interviewing them, understanding what their goals and objectives are, looking not only short-term goals and objectives, but long-term goals and objectives. Not just of them specifically, but also of their buyer. Where are they at with their family? You know, what are their what are their in you know, what time of year do they plan on using the property? What do they want to get out of the property? what are they looking at long term? Um, you know, talking a lot from the construction standpoint, what those times look like, what are those time frames, getting them hooked up with the right people so they're they get good quality information. So, what we do is is a lot of times is is spend that upfront time. So, so when we have a buyer that comes out and says, "Mike, we've we've sat down. We've spent several hours with you on Zoom calls or or personal meetings, a lot of times we'll fly to the client. We'll sit down with them at their house in California, Texas, East Coast, wherever it may be, sit down and have that face toface meeting." What we do extremely well is personalize a process that so many clients feel is very impersonal. And that's really been our niche that we do extremely extremely well. We're very hightouch.

We This is a these are big decisions with big dollars tied to them. And so we want to make sure that a there's no surprises.

Uh we want to make sure that we're totally upfront. We're we have everything on the table.

We we we inform and educate our buyers as best as we possibly can so there's no surprises. That's the last thing any of us want is dealing with surprises when we get into a multi-million dollar or or hundred million dollar transaction is surprises. So, a lot of that is done upfront and we sit down and talk them through that right up front. We we explain the good, the bad, and the ugly about these processes, timing, uh costs, um and and trying to make sure that those goals and objectives that they have are realistic. And so once we get on track with that, we're we're very strategic. Uh we like to say we shoot, you know, we we like to aim like a laser versus a shotgun. So, we're very we're very direct in in how we approach these processes. So, when we put a property in front of a prospective buyer, it's something that they need to look at. And we've we've vetted it, we've gone through it, we've vote, we've visited the property, we've gone through and already done a lot of the due diligence already upfront before they ever even set foot on the property. So, again, being efficient in the process. That's one of the things that we stress within our office is being efficient with our time. There's no wasted motion in what we do. And we c and we convey that to our buyer and we convey that even to our sellers that everything we do has a purpose. We have very strict, very very systematic protocols in everything we do. And and you know, I got to be honest with you, gentlemen, what we do, we're not building rocket ships here. Um, real estate is is is personal and it's being able to execute at a very high level. And that's one of the things that we do and we feel we do exceptionally well. We've transacted more hundred million dollar plus ranch properties.

What's the the total volume that that you guys have done if you're able to share?

Oh boy. I I couldn't even tell you, Jordy, right?

But it's in the it's in the bill. It's in the in the billions.

Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely.

Hit the gong for Mike. We got a gong here.

I think that's a good thing. I got I got I got two more questions. You got to do the question.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I got one more before that. Uh any restrictions on building an air strip on a on a large enough ranch if I want to if I want to create a ranch and fly a PC12, land that or a PC24? Is is that all

fair game? We have civil plan with air strips on their properties, private air strips.

Okay, let's get going again.

Again.

And then we have a question we like we like to ask all of our guests, but it's particularly relevant for you. What's What's the biggest fish you've ever caught?

Oh, you know, as crazy as this sounds, I don't fish a lot.

Oh,

I really don't. You know, we

You're too busy landmaxing.

We're We're busy, you know, and and when I'm not when I'm not at the office, we have a small farm uh that my family and I have that that's kind of my therapy. I I get my hands in the dirt and it's where I work. Um we're avid avid sports fans. So we travel around watching our local college teams and and my son is a college athlete. So so my wife and I we spend a lot of time on the road uh following him. And so uh I I think one of these days I'll probably take up fishing. I do I do like to go to Canada with some with some good friends and we go up and and fish uh walleye and pike in in up in the in northern Canada. But uh around here I I just I just don't have time to get on the rivers too much. And as crazy as it sounds, we get we get on some of the most spectacular fishing water that you could ever imagine that very few people in the world ever get to see. And you know I now with that being said some of my colleagues here in the office are exceptional and and and very accomplished fishermen. So that's probably a better question for for them. I'm I I like to work too much.

I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm with you.

Uh great stuff. Well, thank you for coming on Breaking It Down and uh I'm sure there'll be another land story in the news sometime soon and and we will reach out.

I appreciate you having me on, gentlemen. Thank you very much. Merry Christmas to both of you.

Merry Christmas. Have a great day.

We'll talk to you soon. Let me tell you about Fall, the generative media platform for developers. Develop and fine-tune models with servos, GPUs, and ondemand clusters. Up next, we have Matt Lavine in five minutes. But let's go back to the timeline and clarify something with Augustus Dico. He says, "Am I tripping or did TBPN used to stand for Technology Brothers Podcasting Network?" He says, "Technology, business, podcasting, network. Did we get gentrified, bros?" What happened, Jordy? Break it down for a

I mean, I think Real One I think real ones will always know what the TB and TBPN stands for.

Yes.

Uh we actually never refer to TBPN as like four words. It's just always always the initials.

Always the initials.

We leave it up to the audience to interpret.

Yes, it's becoming a thing. But it is it is actually on our website. There is it is spelled out on our website. It says technology business programming network. I still get that wrong. Often I say production network. It's not production. It's programming network. Of course it's a nod to ESPN. Of course technology and business is what we talk about. And so that made sense.

And technology brothers

TV brothers

always remains.

Yes.

In our hearts.

Eternal. Eternal or epsilon. What's up with uh what has Rivian been up to this week? We should play this clip. Uh we should

R.J.

has been on a tear. He's he's he's making a a a serious run at self-driving and he has it. He's chipped up.

Uh let's play this with sound, please.

And now for the first time on R2, we're adding a third sensor, the LAR.

Oh, they're doing LAR.

That's crazy move. That's bold, right? I don't know. That's

Yeah, clearly no one clapped when he when Go back. That was a really awkward pause.

Dramatic.

And now

pause.

For the first time on R2, we're adding a third sensor. The LAR.

The LAR.

People are like, "No, my iPhone camera is going to get fried." That's a weird thing. Apparently, LAR on certain cars, not all of them, can be so strong that if you point your camera at it with your phone, it can permanently damage the sensor. And so, what about recalls?

I think it I think it actually only hurts the phone. Doesn't hurt. Don't worry. Yeah, you're good. You're good.

Okay. Totally good. Uh Nick, can could you bring over that that bag right there? I got to see We got to see this. Look,

we signed up for Picnic

uh TK's new service. Let's see this. Let's see this. What did you get?

Try picnic. Try picnic.com.

Look at this. We're supporting Travis Kalanick. The Cloud Kitchen's team.

What'd you get? You got a

You got a

You get a slot bowl.

One slot bowl.

One slot bowl. Anyways, looks fantastic. We're excited to check this out. Uh, one of one of one of our interns signed up for the service.

Orange. The orange bag stands out with the green background. You can have your

This feels like a uh Yeah. Yeah. This is This is iconic. This is going to be seen all over all over the place.

He's cooking. They're cooking.

He's literally cooking.

Well, let me tell you about public.com investing for those that take it seriously. They got multiasset investing. Interestingly yields. They're trusted by millions, folks.

Uh Tyler posted yesterday, you're telling me I brainwashed this cult. Yes. didn't get uh didn't get into the three figure like club, but

Kristen Port says uh top 20 tweets of the year. So, you made it top 20.

Okay, top 20. That's good. Yeah. Uh

I only need four more likes. I'm at 96.

Yeah, everyone go give it a like. Go give it a like. There's a chance. Uh I I I tried to artificially give it a boost by quote tweeting that one and not the other ones, but it did out it did perform the best. Right.

Correct.

Because you because we ran the experiment. We posted all four of Tyler's jokes and uh per my prediction, the did a brain watch.

All right, you can turn the giga chat filter off now, Tyler.

You can turn it off.

It's kind of an old bit at this point.

Ridiculous. Ridiculous. Well,

um

we have Matt Lavine from Bloomberg and