SoftBank in talks to invest up to $30B more in OpenAI in latest round targeting $830B valuation
Key Points
- SoftBank is negotiating to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI, doubling down after a $22.5 billion December bet that gave it an 11% stake in the $830 billion valuation round.
- OpenAI commands an $830 billion valuation with projected negative $30 billion free cash flow against $30 billion in 2026 revenue, banking on 300-1000% growth rates to justify the multiple.
- The valuation gap between AI labs and profitable tech giants widens as OpenAI and Anthropic justify billion-dollar premiums entirely on growth potential while remaining cash-flow negative at scale.
Summary
SoftBank is in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI as part of a $100 billion funding round that would value the company at $830 billion post-money. SoftBank chairman Masayoshi Son is doubling down on the bet despite widespread skepticism about whether he could marshal additional capital after his December investment of $22.5 billion, which gave SoftBank an 11% stake. SoftBank Group shares closed 3.7% higher on the news.
The valuation reveals a stark divergence between AI labs and traditional tech. OpenAI is raising at $830 billion with estimated 2026 revenue of $30 billion and negative $30 billion in free cash flow. Anthropic is raising at $500 billion with projected 2026 revenue of $20 billion and negative $15 billion in free cash flow. Google reached a $500 billion valuation with $90 billion in revenue, $20 billion in profit, and 20% growth. OpenAI and Anthropic justify their valuations on growth rates of 300 to 1,000 percent, but both remain cash-flow negative at scale. Whether this math holds depends on whether growth rates sustain and whether these companies can convert revenue into profitability before capital dries up.
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