Anonymous AI commentator 'Nik': OpenAI is a big tech company now, AGI by 2029–2030

Thanks so much. uh why don't you kick us off with a an introduction and keep it as high level as you want since you are anonymous but anything we can tell about your philosophy or background or interests all of that would just be helpful to set the table.

Um sure well um yeah I actually got into AI um around 2021 before Chad Gbit even released

overnight success. Yeah, I was uh you know using their API GB3, you know, I've been their biggest fan from day one.

Oh, okay. Biggest fan.

I said the narrative, right?

I love it. I love it.

Um yeah, I was uh you know, fully following everything that's happening in the space and uh

you know uh was really deluded myself with you know AGI coming in two weeks type of narrative and really going into like the possibilities you know expanding my mind there. um you know when they released Deli I don't know if you guys remember that.

Yeah. I was like uh you know so hyped about it that I even made like an Instagram page to curate all the best images

uh that's been popping all around the internet. Um until a point where I gained like a 100k followers and then open blocked me.

[laughter]

They reported me

villain arc begin

joker mode

and I was like what you know all

I was trying to kind of get access

okay okay here here here here starts the steel man I mean were you hitting the API with anything that was violating toos were you spamming the API were there any other reasons that they could be upset

abandoned from cooking you were just cooking

you can't even cook in this country anymore

[laughter]

Well, okay. I didn't actually they didn't block me from the API. Okay.

But like I started like a community page to

for all the deli post

um on Instagram. Okay.

And what actually happened was like so I actually made a list on Twitter all the people had access.

Yeah. Um, so what happened was like, so an open air employee, you know, said, "Yay, I made this with Deli." I was like, "Okay, cool. I take that. I post it on Instagram." And then what happens like open post the same thing like two hours later.

So people started thinking like I'm actually the main page because I'm posting it before the official page.

Confusing. Okay.

Um,

yeah, but I actually wrote it like it's a community page. It's not

Well, yeah, let's continue with your with your arc. Um, yeah. AGI coming in two weeks. We all felt that in 2022 when CHPT launched. How have your timeline shifted? How AGI pelled are you? How optimistic or doomer are you about the future? Like what's your overall philosophy on on AI in the future?

I think AI is like the greatest technology ever. I feel like uh post 2020 is uh is a new era we're living in and post 2026 is actually even a different era that we're entering into.

Okay.

Um I'm fully AGI pilled. Um I'm curled. I think AGI is coming probably I think we're going to have really powerful systems by 2029 2030.

Um

yeah.

Yeah. Um I think

you know companies are following like different paths to get there. So that's pretty interesting. See

so uh you you're using Dolly early. You're using the Da Vinci 3.5 playground in in OpenAI. Uh what are you using currently? What are you daily driving for knowledge retrieval? Are you vibe coding? Are you doing agentic stuff? What what what what's in your toolkit these days?

Well, you know, if you read my bio, it says non-technical member of technical staff. So, um you know, I don't do a lot of coding, but yeah, I did I did play around with uh you know, mobile. I love cloud code. Um, this is the first time ever in my life that I'm this year I'm actually not using chat GBT.

Um, so my daily driver is like Claude, Grock, and I use.

Yeah. Give me give me some more flavor on when you go to Gemini, when you go to Grock, when you go to Claude.

Sure. Grock is like, you know, amazing for Twitter retrieval. Um, I think it's best. Claude is just has a really nice personality. Like I just like love talking to it. It like tells me like, "Hey, calm down." You know, don't overthink this. [laughter]

Cool.

Don't post. It's so over. It's I think we're going to be fine.

Um

Yeah. In Gemini, I think like Gemini is just like a scientific research assistant. Um I think it has like a really nice

uh it probably has like one of the best reasoning in my opinion.

Sure.

Um I like talking to it like it's like notebook. I just learn. It also feels really fast. I feel like the Google search like the speed is like uh like it feels like if I have to Google something like that's the good place to go.

How are you so how are you so fast with headlines?

Yeah, you're really fast.

I It's funny. Uh I end up getting the news from you first, even though you're you're often times sourcing Reuters, etc.

Yeah. Well, you know, the algorithm loves me. Um, you know, I I think now the connection with the algorithm is one.

Um, I you know, people love me as well. Um,

you got fans in the chat right now. Everyone loves you. Your whole research team is here apparently.

Really? Um,

yeah. I think uh I just like love to stay on top of these things. Um, I'm like really really locked in. Um, so when like you know these reporters they you know post post a whole article with like you know such a long article and the only thing that they're to point out is like yay two lines.

So you know cut through the [ __ ] go direct you know put up the thing that matters. [laughter]

Yeah.

You kind of scoop the you kind of scoop the scoopers. Yeah for sure.

How much how much money have you made from X?

Oh yeah. Um, you know, it varies, but you could kind of pay me like a thousand bucks every two weeks or something like that. Um, sometimes it goes like 2,000.

It's not much, but it's honest work.

It's honest work.

Yeah.

In the trenches.

Uh, talk Yeah. Then, uh, talk to me about last year. It feels like the narrative of the AI bubble started. There was a worry about the AI capex buildout. People were taking two sides. Leopold Ashen Brener of course is super long. Um and uh and then there were voices that started uh you know raising questions about uh the backlog, how much this buildout was going to cost, whether the growth could keep up, whether the models would keep improving, whether we were plateauing. What was your 2025 like? Well, the thing is like my 2020 uh well, I've been like pointing out like some absurdities of like what's happening and you know I started like just doubting from the beginning like okay we were supposed to get AGI by 2023 where did that go?

Um you know I started questioning like wait what is actually happening? Um I started realizing like

um you know the founder of uh you know Sam Alman is like I was like okay what's the agenda actually going? I was like, "Okay, they might be like just raising money and cutting out competition. Like, do I really want that?"

Um, no. So,

they might be doing business. [laughter]

Um,

he might be being a businessman.

Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean he's he's look look Sam Alman is just being you know what he's best at like being a really good startup founder you know driving all the attention and engagement towards him you know either it's like through claims saying you know AGI is going to be the most powerful technology and bad things will happen and then he like leans towards you know doing those bad things uh so for example like I don't know he said social media we don't want to repeat the mistakes of social media and then you know he started making Sora stop

it's really good. I don't I don't dislike the technology. I just like kind of like doubtful of the approach of what's being said in 2022, 2023 and then like 2024 we're entering like hey [clears throat] it's getting a little different.

But about the bubble um yeah I just started doubting like um you know before they didn't have competition so it was like okay they they're going to make it but then Elon started entering the chat. again the chat. So,

um you know, he just

Yeah. But what but with the with the bubble, I think like you can I think it's fair to maybe question their ability to meet some of these like kind of press release economy style commitments.

Yeah. But have you ever had do you do you honestly think there's a world where the market has some intense correction and people stop using you know everyday people that are not on X that that don't know the infamous Nick just stop using you know chat GBT

um so the way I see it with like so I think like the bubble is not um precisely like AI is not a bubble but like the companies are bubbled um you raise too much you overextend you know you're actually entering into a bubble territory The way I look at uh like Chad GBT for example um if you look at all their projections of their numbers um it's all based on user count like how many users do we have so in 202 in the beginning they said they're going to reach a billion users um by the end of the year um they actually stalled at like uh 800 million um I don't even know if they reached 900 million um this like six months they're not growing so if you just make a simple calculation is like okay if their user base which is you know getting mogged by Google for sure. Um if that starts declining and reaches like you know like a certain threshold all the projections fail. Um so

yeah they definitely need growth to continue. I do think that that that 800 number is a little stale at this point. They haven't released the new numbers. It feels like they might still be growing and just not doing the whole like they're saving it for like okay when we put out the billion number it's a big moment. Um but I mean yeah certainly it it it raises questions as you as you uh outlined. What was your read on uh ads in chatbt?

Well you know I'm not a big fan of ads but I am a big fan of ads from the business perspective. Sure. They're going to be like make money.

We love ads here.

Yeah. part of part of my I I think I think

it was important like in processing open AI to realize like it's you know at some point you had to realize like they are operating as like a new big tech company and so the decisions that they make they're going to ship a lot of products like they're going to do browser they're going to try Sora they're going to try a lot of stuff not all of it's going to work but what matters is like is the core

is the core user base still growing you could argue I would be you know I I haven't seen anything that would point to them like shrinking But even a deceleration is not great obvious that scale. Um and so and so yeah, you can you could kind of predict a lot of the things that they would do just by looking at them not as like a ASI company but as a big technology company.

Yeah. Consumer consumer tech.

Yeah. Um sure. I I just think like look at 40 for example. Um when started launching you know Sam Alman said you know the movie her

and Scarlet Johnson her voice you know it was marketed as like uh your lover you know you're going to fall in love with Chad GPT the voice the way it talks to you and what happened people actually fell in love [laughter]

people fell in love

then they shut it down eventually.

Yeah. Well, so so the thing is like the reason why they had like a such a fast growth in in users was because of like the image generation model and this part and now where we are they're really lacking in the image generation model and then

okay but Disney we got all the Disney IP coming. I'm super bullish on this for open it's it just gives them a real

it gives them a feature that no one else can have for at least one year. And I think that when you look at Disney scale, look at how many people go to the parks every single year, uh how many how many people will will pay to get something novel in an image model. I think that could be, you know, part of the next leg up.

Sure. I mean, if IP rights hold uh which I I don't think they will, the the we're entering into um sure that's going to be fun.

It's so over for IP rights. [laughter]

Yeah, it's over. I think it should be abolished in some sense but in a in a very in a very smart way where you know people should get some some recognition or something

a pat on the back.

Where where do you want Yeah. Where where do you want all this to go? I mean the the the anonymous account is interesting because you have a lot of ability to talk openly about a bunch of different companies. Do you want to turn this into an analysis group, a commentary channel? like where where do you see your work evolving?

Look, I was never anonymous. I was like always like I had my face on it. Like people actually know who I am. Like yeah, if you actually like, you know, I don't, you know, if you go back on my tweets, like I was just being me like, you know,

my, you know, I've lived in six countries and whatnot. I've talked about my life. It's all there. I've never deleted anything. Um, if anyone wants to go dig, go for it. [laughter] But the thing is like um yeah I just like went anonymous to like just you know be detached from my identity and like be you know explorative to talk about things that I don't really understand but I want to understand and go for it. So the best way to understand on the internet is to say something absurd and then be corrected. So

yeah,

you're just baiting smart

smart people to uh and I'm sure some

well smart people are baiting us, you know, researchers are acting like marketers like AGI 2 weeks, you know, so they're baiting us, I'm baiting them and you know, it's causing

Yeah. So

I do have a funny update. I like to check this every once in a while because of the Disney Open AI deal. I went to ChachiPT. I I invoked uh image generation and I said make an image of Spider-Man fighting Mickey Mouse and it says we're so sorry but the image we created may so it actually generated the image you saw me showed me a little preview and then it took it away which is so crazy violated guard rails

you know actually do the work and incur the cost

totally read the prompt before that's what I would think but it actually generated the full image and then

even open AI doesn't read instructions

similarity to third party content if you think we got it wrong please retry or edit your prompt And then I used to be able to do that in Nano Banana. I went over to uh Gemini and I said, "Make an image of Spider-Man fighting Mickey Mouse." And it said and it said, "I can't generate the image you requested right now due to concerns from thirdparty content providers. Please edit your prompt." And it didn't generate the image with uh with with Gemini. But uh so I I it's been interesting to see that press release happen. Yeah. Brock will probably do it.

Rockmag but it should and they have an exclusive deal like [laughter] you know it's like moving fast. Anyway,

what are you what are you hoping to spend most of your time on this year?

Yeah.

Um, yeah, I just want to go all in um into all of this. Um, I don't mind doxing myself uh fully in

you know,

I mean, you know, Nvidia invited me to GTC as a full-time creator. Um, and I'm going to go to Jansen and whatnot.

That's fun. So yeah, I think like it's time for me to go, you know, like 10x more and stop, you know, not just posting, but like lot of things I can talk about.

Yeah, that'd be cool. Yeah, I mean the the the anon account, it does it does give you the ability to speak freely, but it does sort of flatten you. I mean, we were going back and forth on this where I was kind of like collapsing you down into just an OpenAI hater. And from talking to you, clearly there's a lot more going on there. Uh but it's easy when I only see the viral post and I don't know anything about the person behind it. like it can become a little one-dimensional. So, I'm excited for your new work. Your hero have a little uh Sam hasn't blocked you, correct?

Uh, no, but Chad GPT has blocked me. [laughter]

Wait, what?

For no reason. Like, I've never commented.

No reason. I mean, you got to give it some credit here. [laughter]

I think I think it would probably be whoever's managing the account logs in and they're sick of seeing anything that happens. the it's over.

I can see why they got to get you got to give some credit.

What is your camera roll like? Is it all pictures of Sam Alman looking perplexed or something? [laughter]

Anyway,

you know, I like entertainment. Um I'm I'm very tasteful with a lot of a lot of these things. So, um

yeah, I just I know what's absurd, what hits, what's what's going to be funny. Um, I just I just post what I feel like and I go, you know, very analytically analytically, but also I'm a I'm a feeler,

so I know what's

very cool. Well, good to meet you, man. This is fun.

Uh, do you mind if we uh flashbang you?

Throwing flashbang.

Throwing flashbang.

There we go. The chat.

It's been great having you on.

Goodbye.

See you soon, Nick.

See you soon, Nick.

Cheers.

Goodbye. Let me tell you about Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. that lives in Figma. So outputs look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build, create codeback prototypes and apps fast. Um, we have our next guest joining in about five minutes. We got to go through the Brian Armstrong story. So Byron Armstrong is in the uh Sunday edition, the exchange edition of the Wall Street Journal. Uh, going back and forth with Wall Street. They called him enemy number one on Wall Street. He's the crypto CEO, of course, is the CEO of Coinbase. He's been clashing with Brian Armstrong or with Jamie Diamond. So Brian Armstrong, CEO of the biggest UK US crypto company was having coffee with

It's almost like they paid him to do that. Like he paid them to write that title.

Yeah.

Like that's getting framed.

It is. I mean, that's what Toby Look, this will look great in a frame. Um, of course, obviously there's there's there's nuance here and there's a battle, but there's some off thereord comments that became on the record, but uh it's an interesting back and forth. So, they were at Davos at the World Economic Forum and uh Brian Armstrong is having coffee with Tony Blair, the former prime minister of the United Kingdom, and uh JP Morgan Chase's Jamie Diamond chimes in. He says, "You're full of ass blank blank blank," said Diamond, a longtime crypto skeptic who's previously called Bitcoin a fraud. His index point his index finger pointed squarely in Armstrong's face. "Can I get a crowd?" I can't. [laughter] I'm pointing over there. He's like, "You're you're full of [ __ ] t." Um, Diamond in a nutshell told him to stop lying on TV. According to people familiar with the conversation, in appearances on business television programs earlier that week, Armstrong had accused banks of trying to sabotage reg legislation that would set new a new regulatory framework for digital assets. The confrontation wasn't quite in line with the annual forum's mission to foster cooperation among global leaders. As crypto moves swiftly into the mainstream of American finance, some Wall Street's some of Wall Street's heavyweights are waking up to the threats. While banks have embraced some aspects of crypto, helping people to invest in Bitcoin and using digital assets to make money transfers more efficient, they are drawing a line at encroachment on their core business, consumer deposits. Armstrong's coming for them. Uh, banks and Coinbase are at odds over go to page five. We have it in the timeline, but it's so much nicer in paper. Uh, whether crypto exchanges should be allowed to offer consumers regular payouts for holding digital tokens. So, you got some USDC. Are they going to pay you interest or not? That's the debate. These so-called rewards would would pay uh holders of stable coins a recurring fee, say 3.5%. Not bad. Stable coins are digital assets pegged to real world currency like dollars. Banks say the payouts are effectively the same as interest on the bank accounts. And since banks offer much less yield, typically under one.1% in a checking account, they worry that the upshot will be that consumers will shift their money in droves into crypto that they say will compromise community banks and lending to businesses. Armstrong and others in the crypto world say the free market should reign and that banks can simply pay higher interest rates to compete with stable coins or get themselves into stable coin businesses themselves. Just join the party. Uh the legislation known as the Clarity Act might shape the future of everyday financial services including bank deposits and electronic payments. In the latest push to find compromise, the White House plans to host a meeting Monday between today uh between banks and crypto industry groups according to people familiar with the matter. So David Saxs will be there. Coinbase's head of policy. Car Calvert will be there. Armstrong 43 co-founded Coinbase in 2012 and has helped lead crypto's quest for legitimacy and mainstream acceptance at the head of the roughly $55 billion firm. Armstrong has a powerful voice in industry debates such as the one playing out in Washington. Quote, "We'd rather have no bell than a bad bill." He said on X in a post a day before the Senate committee was posed to v vote on a version that could effectively ban companies like Coinbase from offering yield to consumers, potentially costing it billions of dollars. Within hours, the vote was abruptly postponed, taking much of the financial world by surprise. There's a lot more here that we can dig into, but we do have our next guest in the reream waiting room. Jordy, is there anything else that's kicking around in your brain?

We need to have somebody on. Yeah. That is not from JPM or Coinbase to talk about this dynamic model.

An independent voice. That would be a