Convective Capital raises $85M Fund II to back disaster resilience tech as climate volatility drives insurer exodus

Convective Capital raises $85M Fund II for disaster resilience tech

Bill Clerico's Convective Capital has closed an $85M Fund II, double the size of its previous fund, to back startups building technology for disaster resilience. Clerico founded the firm after selling WePay — the fintech company he started in 2008 and scaled over twelve years — to JP Morgan. A fire that nearly reached his ranch in Mendocino County connected the personal and professional, and Convective was the result.

The core thesis is structural: the world is getting warmer, infrastructure is aging, and disasters are occurring roughly three times more frequently than they used to. Bloomberg pegs the cost of US disasters at $1 trillion a year, on par with interest on the national debt or defense spending. Clerico draws a direct parallel to fintech in 2008 — a sector that Boston VCs were skeptical of, which then became one of the most consequential technology markets of the following decade.

“We raised the new fund to 85,000,000 — up two x from our last fund, and we're focused on disaster resilience. The world's getting warmer, our infrastructure's getting older, and that's literally a recipe for disaster... Disasters cost The US economy a trillion dollars a year — that's on par with what we pay for interest on the national debt or defense.”

Who's buying

Convective's edge is its focus on end buyers that most VCs avoid: utilities, insurance companies, and government agencies. Clerico argues that's exactly where the behavior change is happening. PG&E's bankruptcy and the mass exit of insurers from California have forced institutions to act. The California FAIR Plan — the state-backed insurer of last resort — just announced a 30% rate increase following the LA fires.

Portfolio companies reflect that thesis. Overstory uses satellite imagery to help utilities identify trees near power lines. Volt Air runs autonomous drone inspections of power lines. Utilities cause around 11% of fire ignitions but 60% of acres burned, so reducing utility-caused ignitions carries outsized leverage.

Consumer unlock

Consumer demand for home hardening products spikes after disasters and fades quickly. Clerico thinks the real unlock is insurance incentives — spend $10,000 on fire shutters and vegetation removal, get a meaningful rate reduction. Portfolio company Stand models homes using computational fluid dynamics to simulate wildfire behavior, produces a prioritized list of hardening recommendations, and can translate those improvements into actual insurance discounts. Without that financial feedback loop, consumer behavior stays episodic.

Cultural friction

Selling technology to fire agencies isn't just a procurement challenge. Clerico is direct that it can backfire if technologists show up at the fire line without context or credibility. Convective runs an annual conference called the Red Sky Summit, bringing together 600 fire chiefs and emergency managers in San Francisco to talk directly with founders. Clerico says meaningful buying behavior has come out of that event, and the cultural tide toward technology adoption is shifting.

Exit landscape

Clerico doesn't frame wildfire as a standalone market. It cuts across energy, insurance, housing, real estate, forestry, and emergency response — each with large incumbents that represent potential acquirers or partners. His bet is that the cost scale justifies standalone public companies, not just strategic exits.

One category Convective hasn't invested in yet but is actively watching is firefighter wearables and worker safety. Wildland firefighters are routinely working in 110–120 degree heat, carrying heavy equipment, with no practical air filtration for wildfire smoke. Clerico sees a path from wildfire-specific gear into broader field service and worker safety markets.