Key Points
- OpenAI's actual annual recurring revenue sits between $50 billion and $70 billion, but conflicting leaks with no official correction have left the market unable to distinguish fact from speculation.
- OpenAI and Anthropic's private status shields them from disclosure rules, yet their revenue figures move public markets through AI-exposed proxies like Oracle and SoftBank, creating incentive structures for securities fraud.
- The absence of mandatory quarterly reporting means OpenAI can influence billions in public market valuations without the SEC oversight that would normally accompany that systemic weight.
Summary
OpenAI's Revenue Numbers Are a Mess—and That's a Problem
OpenAI's actual annual recurring revenue is somewhere between $50 billion and $70 billion. Which one is real? Nobody seems to know, and the conflicting leaks are exposing a strange new market vulnerability.
The confusion stems partly from accounting method differences. When customers buy OpenAI models through AWS, OpenAI counts the full dollar as revenue. Anthropic takes a different approach: it counts what Amazon keeps as a cost, inflating its gross revenue figure. The leaked numbers floating through investor channels appear to be attempts at an apples-to-apples comparison, but those efforts have been sloppy enough that the market received contradictory figures with no clear correction.
The real tension is structural. OpenAI and Anthropic are private companies at a scale where public markets now price in their metrics. Stripe can miss internally and nobody moves Visa's stock. But OpenAI revenue leaks move the market because public company proxies—Oracle, SoftBank, SpaceX—trade on AI exposure. That creates incentive for something that hasn't been viable before: leak a higher number than is true, ride the rumor short, then profit when reality undercuts the hype.
This would be securities fraud. The precedent exists. In 2008, the SEC sued trader Paul Berliner for fabricating a Blackstone acquisition rumor while shorting the target; the stock fell 17% before the hoax unraveled. Citron Research founder Andrew Left faced charges for using influential commentary to mask his true trading positions.
The absence of mandatory disclosure—one of private company privacy's biggest perks—is becoming a regulatory blind spot. Sam Altman has indicated OpenAI will go public when necessary. That timeline matters. Public markets come with quarterly reporting and SEC oversight. Right now, OpenAI's revenue moves other people's money without the accountability that would normally accompany that influence.
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