Key Points
- Ferrari raises full-year revenue guidance to €8.56 billion and adjusted earnings to €2.29 billion on stronger personalization demand and higher-margin model mix, achieving a 30% margin.
- Ferrari's order book extends into 2028, signaling pricing power strong enough that buyers accept multi-year waits for bespoke builds over immediately available alternatives.
- Mainland China shipments fell 105 units as local EV makers undercut Ferrari's waitlists with supercar-level acceleration at lower prices, testing whether the brand can sustain growth.
Summary
Ferrari Extends Order Book Into 2028 as Margins and Pricing Power Accelerate
Ferrari lifted full-year revenue guidance to €8.56 billion from €7.6 billion, with adjusted earnings now forecast at €2.29 billion—a 30% margin. The guidance bump reflects three currents: stronger personalization demand than expected, favorable currency movements, and higher volumes of newer, more profitable models ramping into production.
The order book now extends into 2028, a timeframe that puts Ferrari in direct booking territory with Tesla's Roadster, which also ships in 2028. That overlap matters: it signals Ferrari's customization pipeline is so full that buyers are willing to wait years for bespoke builds.
Volume and Mix
Ferrari delivered 3,368 vehicles in the quarter, down 33 units year-over-year, but the real story is pricing. The F80 supercar, 296 Speciale variants, 12 Cylindri Spider, and Purosangue drove growth. The 849 Testarossa—an SF90 powertrain in new body work—and 296 Speciale Aperta ramped up, while the 849 Testarossa Spider launched. Older models (Roma Spider, 296 GTS, SF90 XX family) were phased out.
Despite lower unit shipments, the margin expansion to 30% signals Ferrari is trading volume for significantly higher per-car pricing through customization.
Geography and China Risk
Europe, Middle East, and Africa saw 38 additional unit shipments; Americas rose by five. Asia ex-China grew 29 units. But mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan dropped 105 units—a meaningful headwind in a luxury market traditionally dependent on Chinese buyers.
The decline reflects two possible pressures: a Chinese market in "deep bear market territory" following what one speaker called "the AI bubble" popping there, and intensifying local competition. Chinese automakers are now shipping EVs with supercar-level acceleration specs at lower price points. For buyers deliberating between a multi-year Ferrari waitlist and an immediately available BYD with matching 0-60 performance, the calculus shifts.
The two remaining launches planned for this year—widely expected to include a manual V12 model and the 296 Challenge street legal variant—will test whether Ferrari can sustain momentum against both macroeconomic softness in China and the emergence of domestic performance alternatives.
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