Moderna cancer vaccine data leaked early, stock crashes 26% — and a fitness influencer accidentally nailed the trade

Moderna Cancer Vaccine Trial Disappoints — and a Fitness Influencer Accidentally Timed the Crash

Moderna's Phase III trial for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine succeeded clinically but failed to meet investor expectations, triggering an 18% stock decline after embargoed results leaked two days early.

The vaccine works by sequencing a patient's tumor, identifying mutations unique to their specific cancer, and manufacturing an mRNA shot that teaches the immune system to attack those cells. It's administered alongside Merck's Keytruda, an existing cancer immunotherapy blockbuster. CEO Stephane Bancel has anchored the company's thesis on personalized cancer treatment since a 2013 TED Talk, though the company endured years of Theranos-style skepticism before delivering results.

The expectations gap

Moderna's Phase II trial showed a 49% reduction in relative risk of cancer recurrence or death compared to Keytruda alone. When the company announced in August 2024 that its Phase III trial—which enrolled over 1,100 cancer patients—had succeeded, it withheld the actual efficacy number. The stock surged on that announcement.

On October 2, medical publication Oncology Central published the embargoed data two days ahead of Moderna's scheduled presentation. The Phase III results showed 42% relative risk reduction, down from the 49% Phase II figure. The stock crashed 26% intraday, closing down 18%.

The results weren't a trial failure. They were a miss on investor anchors. A 42% improvement remains clinically meaningful—particularly for slow-growing cancers. The trial also revealed the vaccine only becomes effective after six months, making it less useful for aggressive, fast-growing tumors.

The accidental trade

Shane Stouffer, a fitness and gambling influencer known online as Togi, nearly nailed the crash through a combination of vibes, panic, and dreams.

On October 4, Stouffer noticed online sentiment turning bearish on Moderna while traders favored nearly every other stock. He bought call options betting the stock would surge. That night, he dreamed Moderna's stock would hit $275 (it was trading around $200). After waking, he asked Claude what it would take for the stock to reach that price and learned about the cancer vaccine for the first time.

Over two weeks, the stock rose 25%, but Stouffer grew worried the hype was already priced in. He had another dream forecasting a 22% surge and convinced himself it was "a sign from God" to trust his original plan to flip short by Friday. When he checked his phone the next morning, Moderna was already tanking and his position was down roughly $200,000.

Panicked he'd lose his shot, Stouffer sold at a loss and immediately bought put options—betting the stock would crash—with roughly $500,000 in freed-up capital. Hours later, the embargoed trial data leaked and the stock plunged 26%.

In his own words: "The news broke early somehow? The most likely outcome for all traders would be that I was destined for rock solid thesis blown up by some unlucky BS." Instead, he called it "giga stroke of luck" and noted the entire saga was "beyond obvious" in hindsight. He added a disclaimer: "Not financial advice, I'm just learning and gambling."